The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>I looked at all the stocks in my watch list and nothing looks good, ie quick easy money except for Shorting Sears but I couldn’t borrow Sears stocks. So I moved to the next target which was WDAY and bought call options. It had been down so I was in an out and made some money. Not great but I was comfortable I would make some money and I did.</p>

<p>@dstark – in post #9719, are you talking about SPY ?</p>

<p>I am talking spy by the way in that earlier post. :)</p>

<p>I was looking at Sears today. :)</p>

<p>I have tried to short SHLD in the past but there were never any shares to short. Lambert owns a lot of shares and I guess he can decide when to make them available for shorting. Lambert is a genius but definitely in over he head on this stock.</p>

<p>Why is he a genius ? Because he got wealthier sucking everything out of this dog?</p>

<p>Shareholders are buried.</p>

<p>He is a genius because of how he many money before this. He is a big hedge fund guy. Maybe he is not a book genius or some other genius but if he can make that much money while I can’t he is a genius when compared to me. Maybe that’s not that hard to do. :wink: </p>

<p>:)… I dont call people that get wealthy while the shareholders lose geniuses.</p>

<p>The guy cut expenses to the bone. Did not invest and the stores are rotting away.</p>

<p>There are people that are not wealthy that are brilliant. Money is a weak barometer. </p>

<p>I know people think there is a strong correlation between money and intelligence.</p>

<p>That means Adrian Peterson is pretty damn smart. Pernell Whitaker too .</p>

<p>In some ways, in some ways they are brilliant. </p>

<p>Well, I am looking at these spy strike prices and it looks like traders got very aggressive.</p>

<p>382,300 calls with a 200 strike price traded. Open interest was 117,000 so it looks like a lot of calls are going to be exercised.</p>

<p>Most of the 201 calls are going to be exercised. </p>

<p>I am short the 198 and 199 calls and there were sbout 76,000 of the 199 calls that to and the open interest was 78,000 so hopefully I wont get assigned on all of them.</p>

<p>I did the buy/writes 40 times in total and I need only 2 calls not to be assigned so we will see.</p>

<p>The 170 calls had an open interest of 8,000. 9,000 traded today. Somebody is hoping people forget to exercise today. :)</p>

<p>“sbout 76,000 of the 199 calls that to”</p>

<p>About 76,000 of the 199 calls that traded today.</p>

<p><a href=“The Shocking Admission of This Shuttered Hedge Fund Manager”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shocking-admission-shuttered-hedge-fund-manager-133021451.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>I really don’t know what is going on in the market in any detail except that it is going up. Dstark seems to have some interesting trades to take advantage of ex -div but I have to look at it in more detail this weekend. I sold my 182 - 200 spy call spread on Monday for 16.45 which I bought for 12 on 8/11, roughly a 37% gain in just over a month but left 1.36 on the table because I should have sold it today. I would have had difficulty doing it since I didn’t have access to a computer most of this week or next week for that matter. When I don’t get that last 1.36 as in this trade, (on 10 contracts that is a good piece of change), psychologically I consider it a loss.</p>

<p>Doct, seriously, that is not a loss. Do not consider that a loss. It is not a loss.Great trade. Really. The actual gain made is a good piece of change.</p>

<p>We should not expect to get every dime and the odds shift as we hold trades. </p>

<p>I don’t like the percentage gains and losses stuff with options. Options are leveraged so of course the percentages are bigger. The percentages are bigger on the downside too.</p>

<p>If I sell some put for fifty cents and it drops to zero, that is not a 100 percent gain. </p>

<p>I have done these dividend trades many times but never have done them in spy…so we will see. If I get assigned on all the short options, I will let you know. Whatever I make will be less than the profits on that spread.</p>

<p>One time I was long a Genentech spread. I think I owned it for 1.50. The maximum was 5.00. The spread got to 4,80 or so with 2 months to go. I didn’t sell it. I wanted the extra 20 cents. The spread dropped all the way back to 1.50. some times we should just get out and let the next guy try to make the last buck.</p>

<p>Or sell half the position. Don’t let a winner turn into a loser.</p>

<p>You know this.</p>

<p>I wouldn’t have figured out that put trade the way you did. If the stock was 100, your percentage gain is .5/100 or .5 per cent.</p>

<p>As far as the 37 per cent loss, you’re exactly right, it is that loss and that is the way I look at it.</p>

<p>I know you wouldn’t.</p>

<p>The percentage gains on these dividend trades are very low. </p>

<p>The percentage gains for each of those .5 put trades is very low except over time, they are obviously very high. That’s why I trade weekly puts.</p>

<p>Yes…</p>

<p>About the dividend trades…</p>

<p>The dividend trades are like selling puts. This particular trade is a little more than a 1 day trade.</p>

<p>The dividends are the premiums sold. The question is… Did I sell any premiums? Or did I just pay commissions for nothing by getting assigned on everything? :)</p>

<p>I could end up long spy short the 198 call or 199 call or both. </p>

<p>The 198 puts are trading for .10 and the 199 puts are trading for .14. </p>

<p>So… What is the better trade if any? Selling the puts? The buy/writes? None of the above.</p>

<p>I could have tried to do this trade with lower strikes. It is safer. Maybe next time.</p>