The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>Doct, how positive of you! :)</p>

<p>DrGoogle, we have a couple of doctors on this thread. :)</p>

<p>Are you short more calls than long stock in jd?</p>

<p>You are giving up quite a lot on the pcln calls. The difference between the bid and offer is quite large, isn’t it?</p>

<p>I guess to hedge my stuff. I should buy puts and then I can sell an otm call spread. I could also sell am otm put spread but that could eliminate part of my hedge.</p>

<p>I dont know if I want to give up some upside. :)</p>

<p>I own the stock, it was supposed to be called away Sep but it didn’t so I so more call again.
Yes, it was like 61.5 and 63.5, what do you mean by giving up. I was set to purchase the contract at 61.5 and it didn’t take so I ended up with 62.66, it was moving quickly.</p>

<p>I’m not necessarily positive at all! I would buy some percentage with a 5 percent drop and more at 10percent etc. the larger the drop, the more I plan on buying.</p>

<p>DrGoogle, You are losing some portion of that bid and offer spread. </p>

<p>Those calls have a delta close to 50. If the stock rallied $3, I would expect those options to go up $1.50. You said you made $0.76. You lost $0.74 of potential profit. That is probably the bid and ask spread at work.</p>

<p>If the calls are $61.50 bid and $63.50 ask and a buyer pays 63.50… and the stock moves up $3, the buyer can be a loser. </p>

<p>The bid rises from 61.50 to 63 on a 3 point move and the buyer sells at 63. The buyer lost .50 on a 3 point move up in the stock.</p>

<p>I guess 3 point moves arent that big a deal in a 1140 stock. … Which is a good thing. :)</p>

<p>Doct, your short put spreads automatically buy for you as we drop, right?</p>

<p>I knew I always loose some portion of money with options. It was worse with LOCO. At least with PCLN, I was able to make money. There is no way I could have put out $1140, so yet it was not efficient but it was moving so fast that I didn’t have time to play around.</p>

<p>@DrGoogle – how did you decide when to sell? From the chart it looks like the price was zigging up and down all day. Do you go into a trade like that with a preset target-- or do you place a limit order to sell at the same time you enter?</p>

<p>I just want to learn how you do it – I think that if I were doing that sort of training I’d end up hanging on right past the uptrend in price – in fact I did exactly that with a TSLA spread about a week ago. I entered it, it went up, I hung on, then overnight the price of TSLA plunged, and my profit turned into a loss. </p>

<p>If you have the discipline to be making those sort of decisions on the fly, I am in awe. </p>

<p>@dstark – I find the different trading strategies and philosophies interesting. I don’t think DrGoogle cares what she has left on the table, it seems to me that she likes to do short-term, profitable trades with the idea that any profit is good. My impression is that she is going for small, frequent gains - kind of like a business person who runs a discount store and opts for a small profit margin and makes their money on volume. But DocT commented to me a while back that there was no point to trading unless my goal was to beat the market – which suggests a very different viewpoint. </p>

<p>Calmom, I agree. There are so many different strategies, philosophies and personalities that it is interesting to see how people trade. There isn’t one way to trade. </p>

<p>I don’t like to give up .75 and I don’t like wide bid/offer spreads so I don’t trade stuff like pcln. Obviously, others do trade pcln. :)</p>

<p>There are traders that like to trade from the long side. Others like to short. Others like to trade from a neutral position.
I have a feeling razorsharp is doing well right now. Razorsharp likes to short things. :)</p>

<p>Calmom, I wish I knew there is a strategy. I think I babysat before I made the trade and after and as soon as I realized it was not going further I sold. Like I wrote earlier I can sense the trader pattern. Also it was a down day and I didn’t want to short it because the chance that it would go down was less than the chance it would go up. So I took the chance. Also I knew PCLN is a good stock, I have confidence it would move up because it was so down. I just don’t know how many points. In fact I was hopping for $5 swing my way but it only went up $3.
This is my trading account to earn vacation money so little money is good. </p>

<p>A bad month to be short volatility. In addition, my relative strength indicators had me with substantial positions in VNQ and EEM. Not good. Oh, well. As we say in these politically correct times, life is a dog of undetermined gender and then you die.</p>

<p>But a question for dstark. For those of us who lack the resources and expertise to invest in specific real estate ventures, what do you think of tripe net reits like O, NNN and WPC as an alternative? Normally I don’t invest in individual securities, but their high yields and consistent record of raising dividends are intriguing.</p>

<p>I think triple nets are intriguing. They have interest rate risk. I dont know enough about these companies.
Did you see the article about O in seeking alpha? I like the comment section.</p>

<p>I like what Warren Buffet said today. Interest rates affect the value of investments. </p>

<p>I dont know how high rates are going or how fast. I am starting to think rates arent going to go up that much. I could be wrong.</p>

<p>The apartment buildings I am looking at I would buy with partners. I would not put a lot of money in any deal. There is risk. Intetest rate risk. Liquidity risk. I havent done anything yet. :)</p>

<p>I saw a list of some muni bonds that are for sale today. The yields are so freaking low…,</p>

<p><a href=“Warren Buffett Buys An Auto Dealer, Defends The Burger King Deal, And Says Interest Rates Are Like Gravity”>Warren Buffett Buys An Auto Dealer, Defends The Burger King Deal, And Says Interest Rates Are Like Gravity;

<p>Well I didn’t know yesterday was Oct 1. Had I’m more aware I would take more net. I’m still in the shorting mode. Some weak stocks are most likely crumble.</p>

<p>GoPro is down 10% because the lockup rules were suddenly changed for this IPO. The Jill + Nicholas Woodman Foundation’s lockup restriction will be released effective Oct.3. Why is this a legal move? Shouldn’t the company have given shareholders a heads up like a month before and NOT a day before?</p>

<p><a href=“GoPro Founders Break LockUp Expiration”>GoPro Founders Break LockUp Expiration;

<p>People has been trying to short GoPro because it’s like TSLA on steroid.</p>

<p>The gopro short is common knowledge that’s why it got squeezed all way up to almost 100 plus the fact that it’s difficult to find shares to short so you’ve to resort to buying a put. Just weird that restriction was lifted for the founders just like that.</p>

<p>Thanks for the reference. Very interesting.</p>

<p>The difficulty is that it is hard to find anything with substantial yield these days without taking on significant risk. Hopefully, over the intermediate term interest rate risk would balance out. I like the long term performance of the established triple nets though; speaks well to the ability of management to deal with the risks.</p>

<p>I agree with you. I think I would prefer apartment reits over retail reits. Haven’t thought it out that much. Except the apartment reit yields are in the 3-4 range. Echhhh.</p>

<p>Those of us that care about yield are struggling to find stuff. Everything looks a little inflated to me. Not huge inflated…but inflated. :slight_smile: that means returns going forward are going to be lower.</p>

<p>I linked something from Shiller. Yesterday? Earnings yield in the s&p 500 s a little over 5 percent. The average is closer to 6.67. I could be wrong but that tells me there is going to be slightly less return on stocks going forward than if the pe was 15. The last 15 years stocks have returned about 4.5%. The PEs were in the 20’s back then. The PE contraction to 19 hurt returns. If rates were really going to stay this low for a decade… The investment landscape may not be overvalued. :)</p>

<p>Anyway, I am struggling with this investment climate. You aren’t alone, EMM1. :)</p>

<p>I’m pretty confident that my 10/3 16 aapl 98 puts will expire otm - 91% and I won’t have to buy 157000 worth of apple stock. I’m also confident that my 10 10/3 200-199, 192-180 put spreads will be good tomorrow.</p>

<p>Doct, I think your confidence is well founded!</p>