<p>Yep… Last I looked the s&p futures are up 10 so who knows.</p>
<p>I think doct is smoking something if he thinks qe has not affected asset prices and the way the markets trade. The markets would never have risen to where they are today without qe . I have zero doubt. Not too many things where I have zero doubt. </p>
<p>How low did the vix get? </p>
<p>I mentioned Peter Thiel today and I like what he said.</p>
<p>“I think doct is smoking something if he thinks qe has not affected asset prices and the way the markets trade. The markets would never have risen to where they are today without qe . I have zero doubt. Not too many things where I have zero doubt.”</p>
<p>I’m a nonsmoker. If you’re correct than you must think that over the next 4 months or so that the market will be lower. I disagree. The market will hit 2000 again within that time frame (I’m sure you remember my market call more than 5 years ago that the low in the s&p would be during the 1st quarter of 2009). The ending of qe has been known for a long time, it doesn’t matter and is already baked into the market. Rates will still be low. QE ending this time is different than the other times that it ended as the economy is improving. There is concern because of the slowing world economy and ebola.</p>
<p>Well, I’ve been staying out of the stock market. With all the Ebola fear, I thought this maybe the best time for me is to book my vacation and my daughter’s vacation in Hawaii, different island and different date, but we’ve been waiting to get cheap fares so we can use the coupons we got last time we travelled, we were able to do that today. The price was a few hundred dollars higher a few weeks back. I’ve got CC to thank for.</p>
<p>Doct, I disagree with you. There is no doubt that qe has affected asset prices.
The market is already lower. The market moves in advance. I have no idea what is going to happen in the future. We have had companies valued at billions of dollars that had nothing but dreams. We may have enough people like you that think the ending of qe doesnt matter and the market may rally… But the ending of qe does matter. </p>
<p>I hate this idea that investors have to buy stocks because there is no alternative. That is dangerous. Relative value can mean that some investments are just overpriced less. That is what I think is true now.</p>
<p>What can happen is future returns are less. There doesnt have to be a colllapse. </p>
<p>Just an update because I mentioned this holding before … I got stopped out on MNK today. Shares were valued at 70.88 at the time of the acquisition of QCOR - went up a high of 94 – closed today at 86. So I ended up with roughly a 16 point gain over 60 days. </p>
<p>Overall my portfolio is getting very light… mostly cash… but as I’ve mentioned, I’ll be traveling for most of the remainder of the month so I’m happy. Just less to think about right now. </p>
<p>It’s mixed vacation/work. One week for fun, then the next week attending a conference where I am slated to give 2 presentations. Stressing out as I finalize my power points…</p>
<p>Calmom, Don’t get stressed out. Enjoy your vacation. I was waiting for this week to book my big birthday celebration. I got 37% hotel discount and very inexpensive airlines.</p>
<p>This market is starting to get me nervous. When people like Biryni etc are getting nervous it makes me nervous. Unfortunately I bought some 1/17/15 googl 535 - 555 calls when googl was around 555 for 11.20 which is now worth only 10.70. Fortunately I didn’t buy all that I wanted so I guess I’ll hold off for a while before I buy more. I think it was Bernard Baruch who I’m paraphrasing said “expect the stock you just bought to immediately drop and immediately after you sell for it to go up.” </p>
<p>Anybody have any good ideas as to how to catch the bottom in the market or any good market ideas at all?</p>
<p>My relative strength indicators have me in tlt and ief this month (in addition to vti,not so good). System or no system, I am sorely tempted to take the money and run. BTW, has anyone else noted how vnq has been surging this month? Must be a function of falling interest rates.</p>
<p>I’ve made money buying NFLX put today. I bought the 350 jan 15 put for 25 and sold for 29. I was very careful not to take any careless risk. But I still made mistake buying the put too soon.</p>