<p>"“Apple is the largest contributor to earnings growth by far for the entire S&P 500,” said John Butters, FactSet earnings analyst. Without Apple, earnings growth for the first-quarter earnings season would be 3.5 percent rather than the 5.9 percent for the index including Apple."</p>
<p>I don’t know about you, but it looks to me like 3.5% per quarter without aapl isn’t no growth</p>
<p>As we head into 1Q12 earnings season, much like last quarter, AAPL is expected to have another sizable effect on index earnings and margins, masking otherwise less-than-stellar trends. Earnings growth is estimated at just 1.4% y/y, and about zero excluding AAPL. It seems likely that results will wind up somewhat better than expected, given a post-recession median positive surprise ratio of ~70%. However, even tacking on last quarter’s ex-AAPL earnings surprise of 230bp, this quarter is setting up for 2% y/y growth, which would make this the worst growth rate since the recovery began. </p>
<p>Read more: [S&P</a> Earnings Growth Without Apple: 0% - Business Insider](<a href=“http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-29/markets/31253160_1_earnings-season-earnings-surprise-earnings-growth#ixzz1vkKGOUt8]S&P”>http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-29/markets/31253160_1_earnings-season-earnings-surprise-earnings-growth#ixzz1vkKGOUt8)</p>
<p>[What</a> corporate earnings would look like without Apple - Mar. 15, 2012](<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/15/markets/corporate-earnings-apple/index.htm]What”>What corporate earnings would look like without Apple - Mar. 15, 2012)</p>
<p>Well we have differing calculations but this is a moot point as I said that profits were at a record high, I didn’t say the growth rate was at a record high. For all you doubters who seem to think that the market wouldn’t be higher if it weren’t for Europe, what do you think would happen if tomorrow the european situation completely cleared up - that the peripheral countries were all bailed out or backstopped? Would the market stay where it is or would it go up?</p>
<p>If that happens i see a big shoot upwards, and within 1 month, it will all be gone…</p>
<p>[S&P</a> Earnings History](<a href=“http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm]S&P”>http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm) shows earnings over the years - notice that 2011 has the biggest value</p>
<p>If Europe weren’t such big news, then jobs would be - it’s drip, drip, drip, every week and every month. We’d also hear more about the budget impasse, taxmageddon, SCOTUS on healthcare, education loans, and the other softer economic reports.</p>
<p>Tell you what, just give me the top ten earnings companies in the S&P 500 that are cheap on a P/E basis. I don’t care about the other 490.</p>
<p>Great chart…</p>
<p>Where are the dividends as a percentage of earnings?</p>
<p>That ratio fell out of bed…</p>
<p>There’s this type of cr** all the time, that’s why they call it “climbing a wall of worry”</p>
<p>What are you guys arguing about again?</p>
<p>You are both long.</p>
<p>You both like Aapl. You both like Intc.</p>
<p>I am getting lost…must be past my bedtime.</p>
<p>I don’t like the S&P 500. I do like individual stocks which I believe will outperform the market. Of course if the market really tanks, that may just make me less sad than most others.</p>
<p>On the other hand, I did a quick budget now that we’re not paying college expenses and one kids is paying his own way. I figure that we’re putting in around 35% of my salary income into savings (I’m not including Social Security as savings). I’ve spent a good chunk of this month moving things and running. In June, I need to take a look at assets again and reallocate and reorganize. There are too many accounts that I’ve neglected for a while. I even have a few thousand that went to the state because a bond got called a few years ago and I wasn’t paying attention. Not sure that I can get that back - my mother set it up when our son was born.</p>
<p>I think you can get that bond money back.</p>
<p>In Cal…there is some department that can be called…</p>
<p>I can’t believe there isn’t one in NH or other states.</p>
<p>I don’t know how far back you can go…but I think it is pretty far.</p>
<p>You are probably in the 99 or 98 percentile in saving in this country…</p>
<p>Must be nice to be done with your son…</p>
<p>Here we go…</p>
<p>[Treasury</a> - Abandoned Property](<a href=“http://www.nh.gov/treasury/Divisions/AP/APindex.htm]Treasury”>http://www.nh.gov/treasury/Divisions/AP/APindex.htm)</p>
<p>I started paying back his scholarships yesterday. We did not really need them.</p>
<p>BC-- Do you mean you are paying back the school into the scholarship fund? I really like that idea. D has a scholarship, but I think it just looks good on her resume. I think I would like to pay back the scholarships when she graduates. I hadn’t thought of that. Nice move.</p>
<p>A reality check…maybe not for posters…but what is really going on for most Americans.</p>
<p>[6</a> Reasons You’ll Never Retire - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-reasons-you-ll-never-retire.html]6”>6 Reasons You'll Never Retire)</p>
<p>“Once upon a time, people stopped working at age 65 and enjoyed years of golf and grandchildren funded by a reliable monthly income from corporate pension and health care benefits supplemented by government health care and Social Security. In 2012, that fairy tale has become a joke. Here are six reasons you’ll never retire.”</p>
<p>It’s getting to the point where even I’m getting worried about whether or not you are going to be able to retire dstark! I really want that for you, since you want it for yourself.</p>
<p>I don’t really see myself “retiring” per se, anyway, but that’s just me.</p>
<p>There is a retirement for everyone,not unlike there is a college for everyone…of course, you may not get all the bells and whistles you want…of the 6 reasons,in our case, family inheritance isn’t happening…</p>
<p>I plan on retiring. A lot of people expect to work until they “drop”. This doesn’t happen too frequently as most people get sick, end up in a nursing home or hospital etc. My father retired at 65 and just dropped at 94 (literally in the back yard) but he’s the only person in my family who ever didn’t end up in a hospital or a nursing home or require care of any kind.</p>
<p>I haven’t owned intc for a week or so. I do own aapl calls however but I also have implemented dstark’s protection strategy which works well right now even when the market is going up. In my trading accts, I don’t care if the market is going up or down except for aapl.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>Yes.</p>
<p>I plan on retiring…
That is about it…I have no idea how the details are going to work out…
I am surprised by what I do now…where I live, etc.
A friend says he never plans…his life has turned out quite a bit different than he imagined anyway…so what is the point?
Doct…your father’s way to go looks good to me. I am going to make plans to go that way myself. :)</p>
<p>Doct…you are out of Intc and I am in Intc…I like your timing much better.
I had my dream…that aapl trades for 530. A friend bought Aapl at
530ish… because of my dream. He told me after he bought it when the stock was trading around 560.
I didn’t buy Aapl because I had no clarity. My dream didn’t tell me where Aapl was going after it traded at 530. :)</p>
<p>I have no idea what yesterday was about in the markets. If a person slept through yesterday and woke up today…</p>