<p>As to the experts on CNBC</p>
<p>“Even a broken clock is right twice a day”</p>
<p>:)</p>
<p>Es futures were up a little over two points…</p>
<p>Now down 9 points.</p>
<p>Japan futures off 2.3%</p>
<p>Can’t let DW see this article. :)</p>
<p>[AIG</a> Chief Sees Retirement Age as High as 80 After Crisis - Bloomberg](<a href=“Bloomberg - Are you a robot?”>Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)</p>
<p>Guess I better not either.</p>
<p>Looks like a little stabilization…</p>
<p>The markets aren’t moving much anymore.</p>
<p>Some of these countries should raise the retirement ages.</p>
<p>We are down .80 % in the futures, not bad…</p>
<p>Dstark:
ECRI said that the recession would not be called until a significant time after it starts just like in 2008. They further said they cannot precisely predict when it would start, and that the market behavior may be independent of a recession. The severity of the recession would depend on exogenous events that could make it worse than a mild recession. They were not expecting a 2008 style recession. Acuthan refuses to make predictions on the market just business cycles. However, in 2010 when everybody was predicting a recession, he said there wouldn’t be a recession and also made the remark that when people realize that it isn’t a recession, it will be too late to get back into the market. Based on that, near the bottom, I when full tilt into the market. Prior to that point, I was significantly behind the market and ended up more than 15% better than the market by the end of the year. So yeah, I do tend to pay more attention to people who make me money.</p>
<p>Your friend Don Luskin (LOL) made a prediction of a mild recession roughly the same time as ECRI and when asked on the impact on stocks, he didn’t think it would impact stocks at all because they’re undervalued unlike what happened in 2000-2001 where they were overvalued.</p>
<p>June 17 is when Greece has its next election or effectively a decision as to whether to stay in the euro or not. I expect that it will have a potentially big impact on the markets.</p>
<p>I do not believe that in times like right now when the market is gripped by significant degrees of panic or greed for that matter, that anybody can predict what will happen. Human behavior and in particular, herd behavior is poorly understood. So far as what anybody is saying in regards to where the market is going I don’t listen to anybody (except maybe qdogpa). This is my current belief. I’m not stating facts, just beliefs.</p>
<p>The 2008 recession call was made 1 year after it started:</p>
<p>"On December 1, 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the United States had officially entered a recession beginning in December 2007.1 A variety of factors have contributed to this prognosis, including the subprime mortgage crisis, rising unemployment, a general downturn in economic growth, and the precarious state of major financial institutions such as Fannie Mae and AIG. "</p>
<p>Cramer just said he is looking to buy real estate ,2 br condo in Brooklyn…given lousy returns in fixed income…who is with him? Lol</p>
<p>Thanks for explanation on significance of June 17th.</p>
<p>Doct…I know what the guy said…</p>
<p>[U.S</a>. Economy Tipping into Recession | All Reports | Reports and Indexes | ECRI](<a href=“http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091]U.S”>http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091)</p>
<p>I tell you what…</p>
<p>If a recession started in 2011… I am going to give that guy credit.</p>
<p>I have a problem with this…</p>
<p>[U.S</a>. Economy Tipping into Recession | All Reports | Reports and Indexes | ECRI](<a href=“http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091]U.S”>http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091)</p>
<p>"A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turned negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.</p>
<p>Three other three negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 34 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.</p>
<p>The third significant negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.</p>
<p>The question had been whether the WLI decline that began in Q4 of 2009 was a leading indicator of a recession. The published index has never dropped to the -11.0 level in July 2010 without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a recession onset was in the Crash of 1987, when the index slipped to -6.8. ECRI’s managing director correctly predicted that we would avoid a double dip. The positive GDP since the end of the last recession supports ECRI’s stance."</p>
<p>Or maybe I shouldn’t have a problem with this… A 60 percent record is quite good actually.</p>
<p>It isn’t 100 percent though.</p>
<p>I might agree with Cramer…</p>
<p>Rates are so low now…</p>
<p>There might be a shift of capital to real estate…</p>
<p>I should just say there will be…there will be a shift… I am making the call today…Jun 3
2012…or is it 02/07/2012.</p>
<p>Wait a minute, where is the quote above coming from - is it from ecri or is it somebody interpreting how they make their predictions? I’ve seen a lot of folks believing that they’re using only certain metrics when it reality, I don’t think anybody outside of them know what’s in their blackbox. More important than any of that:</p>
<p>Oh oh, look out - I think that ultimate bear is on cnbc - Robert Prechter!</p>
<p>Well of course…ecri is going to day they are perfect…lol.</p>
<p>I think there is pleny of stuff on the internet that says they aren’t. </p>
<p>My daughter is waiting me now.</p>
<p>IMO this latest dip has completely killed the confidence of most investors. We will most likely see heavy selling this week as they liquidate. I know I would not want to be long equities until Europe is sorted out. It is the most aggravating feeling waking up and seeing the futures down 13 odd points based on the same recycled Euro crisis headlines that you swore you read last week or the week before that.</p>
<p>BTW, I have an article on inflation coming up if anyone wants to read it PM me.</p>
<p>“I think there is pleny of stuff on the internet that says they aren’t.”</p>
<p>Show me ecri’s actual predictions and where they were wrong, not what the wli is predicting and then I’ll agree with you.</p>
<p>[It’s</a> official: U.S. in a recession since December 2007 - Dec. 1, 2008](<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm]It’s”>It's official: U.S. in a recession since December 2007 - Dec. 1, 2008)</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/freenews/2009/october/pdf/2y1zt8p5148gqc1.pdf[/url]”>http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/freenews/2009/october/pdf/2y1zt8p5148gqc1.pdf</a></p>
<p>[Mish’s</a> Global Economic Trend Analysis: ECRI Calls Recession Based on “Contagion in Forward Indicators”; Just How Timely is the Call?](<a href=“http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/ecri-calls-recession-based-on-contagion.html]Mish’s”>Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: ECRI Calls Recession Based on "Contagion in Forward Indicators"; Just How Timely is the Call?)</p>
<p>[Kirk’s</a> Market Thoughts: ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy](<a href=“http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/2008/01/ecri-says-there-is-window-of.html]Kirk’s”>Kirk's Market Thoughts: ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy)</p>
<p>You know…there aren’t that many recessions…</p>
<p>“Achuthan’s research firm tracks weekly leading economic indicators that
are supposed to signal a change in direction for the economy four or five months ahead of time. Those indicators are continuing to fall at a record
pace.”</p>
<p>So I guess we will have to see if a recession started by the end of Feb. 2012. 
</p>
<p>I don’t know what we are going to do about the 2007 recession and the
2008 call…</p>
<p>I heard time travel is possible…</p>
<p>You are a theoretical physicist.</p>
<p>True?</p>
<p>Wait…the remarks about the 2011 were not hedged…the US was tipping into a recession…not…the US was tipping into a recession by Feb 2012.</p>
<p>Is time travel possible? I do want to know that. Really.</p>
<p>[Remarks</a> at the Festival of Economics, Trento Italy | George Soros](<a href=“http://www.georgesoros.com/interviews-speeches/entry/remarks_at_the_festival_of_economics_trento_italy/]Remarks”>George Soros | Remarks delivered at the Festival of Economics)</p>
<p>Woke up this AM with an idea to buy Spain and Italy, and checked and found out Spain seems to be up…hmmm…</p>