The Iraq war is not going as expected

Parent Cafe
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<p>I believe that the Iraqi Constitution deal has been put off again. </p>

<p>One of the problems is that the US military is essentially acting as the militia for the Kurds and the Shia , so they don’t feel like they have to realistically compromise with the Sunni. Why should they when the US is willing to kill the largely Sunni resistance?</p>

<p>One argument for US withdrawal is that it would stop the influx of Jihadists who are in Iraq to fight Americans and to to help the resistance which is about 90% Sunni nationalists. The Sunni nationalists are willing to tolerate the outside Jihadists only to the extent it helps with their immediate goals of fighting the US…</p>

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<p>TheDad, I would be interested in what sources you are reading on the situation in Iraq. By their own admission, due to extreme danger, most of the mainstream media stays in their hotels in secure parts of Baghdad, so they don’t know what is happening. Reports from the Pentagaon have proven to be largely propaganda trying to create a favorable impression that all is ok. The embedded reporters have often proven to not be able to get past the Pentagon news releases or what they are allowed to see.</p>

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<p>That’s not the interpretation of any of the constitutional experts on the ground in Iraq.</p>

<p>The fact of the matter is that democratic politics are at play. The Shiia and the Kurds have an absolute majority the country. So, based on democratic voting, they will control the ballgame and have no particular need to compromise.</p>

<p>However, international law/politics experts working with the constitutional committee have actually been surprised at the degree to which Shiia and Kurdish political leaders are cognizant of the need to get Sunni endorsement of the constitution.</p>

<p>I don’t know that the popular media in the US really communicates how much grassroots interest there is in the consitutional and political process by the Iraqi people. There have been 5500 grassroots education/voter meetings on the draft constitutions.</p>

<p>In many ways, the artificially imposed deadlines are creating a problem because you have three different activities taking place simulataneously:</p>

<p>a) new political leaders testing the limits of their political clout through trial and error</p>

<p>b) political negotiations on a political “deal” inherent in the constitution</p>

<p>c) constitutional law experts drafting a technical document</p>

<p>The most applicable quote I’ve seen is the old LBJ adage about two things you never want to watch being made: sausage and law.</p>

<p>The process has been made much more difficult by the Sunni’s stupid decision to boycott the initial elections – a mistake they are belatedly trying to rectify with massive voter registration efforts in Sunni strongholds like Faluja. It is those voter registration efforts that have Zaqawi turning his suicide-bomber thugs against Sunni political leaders in recent weeks.</p>

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<p>Texdad:</p>

<p>CSPAN broadcast a very good two-hour panel discussion Tuesday with three experts who have just returned from Iraq. One is a female Iraqi-American who has been involved in women’s rights issues related to drafting the constitution. One is an American constitutional law expert who has been advising minority groups in the drafting process. The third is a constitutional law expert who has been advising the drafting committee on technical legal issues.</p>

<p>Taken as a group, they present a very thorough overview of the good and the bad in the process.</p>

<p>You can find the link at:</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.cspan.org/VideoArchives.asp?CatCodePairs=,&ArchiveDays=100&Page=2[/url]”>http://www.cspan.org/VideoArchives.asp?CatCodePairs=,&ArchiveDays=100&Page=2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Look for US Institute of Peace video link.</p>

<p>Several points:</p>

<p>The process has been a little backwards. Ideally, the process should have started with a political deal (such as we have now seen between the Shiia and Kurdish leaders) followed by a technical/legal drafting of a constitution that reflects that “deal”. The short time frame meant that the technical experts tried to write a constitution and had to turn it over to the political leaders to hammer out a deal. As a result, the constitution will be more of a political agreement than anything else.</p>

<p>The political leaders have shown a great commitment to making it work long term and have avoided many of the typical expediencies seen in post-conflict constitutions. There is a good-faith effort to forge a constitution for a unified Iraqi state and a LOT of compromise to get there.</p>

<p>The latest draft of the constitution is, by far, the most moderate and democratic consitution in the Islamic world. It has many shortcomings, but we are talking about a ground-breaking effort.</p>

<p>For very detailed background on the issues and disagreements in the process, see a series of articles by Nathan Brown of the Carnegie Endowment:</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.cspan.org/VideoArchives.asp?CatCodePairs=,&ArchiveDays=100&Page=2[/url]”>http://www.cspan.org/VideoArchives.asp?CatCodePairs=,&ArchiveDays=100&Page=2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>There are links at the right side of the page to some terrific articles putting the many issues of the constitution drafting in the context of the region. For example, it was Browns articles that clued me into the fact that mentions of Islam as “a” basis for law is moderate language compared to Shiara as “the” basis for law. Subtle shadings with signficant differences in meaning that are being overlooked by the mainstream media.</p>

<p>Finally, here is a terrific blog by two Iraqi brothers who provide some Iraqi perspective and a regular recap of what the Iraqi media is reporting:</p>

<p><a href=“http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/[/url]”>http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Radioactive Wounds of War
Tests on returning troops suggest serious health consequences of depleted uranium use in Iraq</p>

<p>By Dave Lindorff</p>

<p>Gerard Matthew and his daughter Victoria Claudette Matthew.
Gerard Matthew thought he was lucky. He returned from his Iraq tour a year and a half ago alive and in one piece. But after the New York State National Guardsman got home, he learned that a bunkmate, Sgt. Ray Ramos, and a group of N.Y. Guard members from another unit had accepted an offer by the New York Daily News and reporter Juan Gonzalez to be tested for depleted uranium (DU) contamination, and had tested positive.
Matthew, 31, decided that since he’d spent much of his time in Iraq lugging around DU-damaged equipment, he’d better get tested too. It turned out he was the most contaminated of them all.
Matthew immediately urged his wife to get an ultrasound check of their unborn baby. They discovered the fetus had a condition common to those with radioactive exposure: atypical syndactyly. The right hand had only two digits. …"</p>

<p>From In These Times</p>

<p>The aftermath, and the Depleted Uranium, we have known about that for some time, its OURS</p>

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<p>Lindorff? Isn’t he the guy who during last year’s debates said that Bush was getting transmissions from Karl Rove received via an earplug that was supposedly attached to a receiver seen bulging in Bush’s back?</p>

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<p><a href=“http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/europe/2001/depleted_uranium/default.stm[/url]”>http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/europe/2001/depleted_uranium/default.stm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p><a href=“Scottish Sunday - Scotland's Independent Sunday”>Scottish Sunday - Scotland's Independent Sunday;

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<p>I think the Iraq war IS going as expected- a complete and utter mess, based on lies, misinformation and disguised goals and agendas.</p>

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<p>I agree it is just as I thought. Weakest opening in ME…great natural resource, allows us to cozy up against Saudi Arabia. Soon we will capitalize on our $40 Lite Sweet Crude…you know quid pro quo.</p>

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<p>A gallon gas, …$3.00;
average price of a house, $300,000
war in the mideast going south, $3,000,000,000+
President riding bike with Lance Armstrong…priceless</p>