To put it into context a 1300 is in the 87% of test takers. It just goes to show you that CC is a land of its own.
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Then why did you use just two examples that are so spurious? The detailed UC faculty Senate report clearly contradicts your conclusions and they thought testing scores provided meaningful additional evaluative data.
But if you think you are onto something, go ahead and publish your findings. In the meantime, the data you presented doesnât warrant the conclusions you derived.
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The UC study separates results by school. For example, it shows predictive ability at UC Merced, in addition to the UC system overall. It found that SAT was less predictive at less selective UC Merced than among the UC system in general, as well as less predictive at UC Merced than at more selective UCs such as Berkeley and UCLA. The results werenât simply due to UCs being highly selective.
At all of the 9 individual UC colleges (UCSF not included), SAT only explained a minority of variation in grades. In all course subjects, SAT only explained a minority of variance in grades. In all major groupings, income levels, races, income levels, HS types, ⊠SAT also only explained a minority of variation in outcome. All studies I am aware of came to similar conclusions about SAT only explaining a minority of variance in outcome, regardless of whether they were done at more or less selective colleges. I am not aware of any review finding the relationship you describe where 650 math SAT means you are good, and 550 means you will struggle. Itâs not that simple. Many factors influence college success beyond math SAT score.
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I took a random sample which appear to me to be representative based on similar examples which I did not include in my post (I did not feel it particularly needed or appropriate to create a post on a forum with 50 or 100 different screen shots, so I just chose two illustrative examples from those which I perused). Again, anyone is welcome to do a more thorough search through data if they have the time, energy, and interest to do so. I do not.
At most I have a passing interest in this topic that does not extend beyond reading a thread on a discussion forum for a few minutes a day. I have no kids applying to college anymore, nor do I work in academia any longer, so I have no horse in this race. I think itâs somewhat interesting. I donât have more engagement in it than that. If others do, they can certainly do the necessary work to tease out better supported conclusions.
Are they?
That hasnât been my experience. In my observation, many families push extremely hard to attain a perfect score on the SAT because they believe that while it may not guarantee their admission âanywhere,â they see the numbers and they know that getting a perfect rather than an excellent score gives the kid a better chance. In my experience, these are very well informed families who are desperate to send their kids to one of a few select schools.
And there is nothing that can be said to these families that will make them believe otherwise, because from some regions and high schools, and for some colleges, the numbers back them up. The only thing that is going to pop the perception that these tests mean more than they do is for the schools move away from relying on the tests. As it is now there is a cultish obsession to beating these tests, by informed families.
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A larger sample at less selective Cal State LA is below. The summary shows grade distribution in all 3800+ classes, weighted based on the number of students who took the class. It doesnât appear that grades as a whole have dropped substantially, upon not requiring SAT/ACT.
2019: 41% A/A-, 31% B+/B/B-, 15% C+/C/C-, 3% D+/D/D-, 5% F/NC
2022: 48% A/A-, 25% B+/B/B-, 13% C+/C/C-, 3% D+/D/D-, 6% F/NC
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I find it very interesting that < 10% of the total received failing grades. The vast majority received As or Bs.
Is that the case for every university? If so, the aphorism that it is far more difficult to fail out of college than get in probably applies to most schools.
I realize that high school counselors provide profiles to help contextualize a studentâs transcript. However there are two levels of contextualization: a student relative to his HS class; and a student relative to the student body at a given college. The point of my post above is that a tippy-top student at a mediocre HSâeven a student with a lot of intellectual firepowerâwill be middle-of-the-pack if the courses offered and opportunities available were sub-par. Harvard took a chance on my husband, and he succeeded in his major and went on to grad school in physics. But his grad school options were limited by the strength of the Harvard pool. He wasnât at the top of the class.
Test scores provide a possible window into a studentâs ability to keep up (or perhaps catch up!) and I question whether anyone is served by admitting a student who struggle once âcontextâ is removed from the equation (i.e., once professors and peers are the arbiters, not AOs). Iâm not saying scores should be dispositive or that theyâre the only data point, but they are a data point.
Furthermore, HS profiles are helpful, but given grade inflationâand now in a test optional environmentâhigh schools are incentivized to increase their college admission placements by showing the strength of their students and to report high grades. The pressure on teachers to give high grades is well documented. I think this makes test scores a more relevant datapoint than if grades and curricula more accurately reflected student performance.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/opinion/teachers-grades-students-parents.html
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Most colleges are not that hard to get into.
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People on this forum donât usually talk or complain about colleges with 90+% acceptance rates. 
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There is also likely some self selection going on, too - not all high school graduates attend college. Those who do - especially when there is some selection happening - are those most likely to have taken college preparatory courses and have at least passed all of those courses (and sometimes done very well in them). There are also transfer students who come in to four year colleges with two years of college-level class experience, setting them up better for success. Students with no preparation for college at all seldom go straight into a four year college; therefore, those students who have some preparation should be largely set up to not fail all their classes once there.
Standardized testing in other countries tends to take a different direction, in that it tends to be more tied to high school course work, and includes higher level material.
But the US has gone the opposite direction, with the elimination of subject tests covering ordinary level material, and continuing unevenness in access to advanced level courses and tests (e.g. AP, college). So we are stuck with just the SAT and ACT with their limitations.
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That is not the assertion I was responding to. You left out the part I quoted. I was specifically responding to these statements:
And
These are the parents that I said are uniformed. Not the parents of high achieving kids that are trying to do everything to boost their kidâs chances at the top colleges, and who know that these full scores donât guarantee admission.
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How can that be true given the small number of kids who actually get a perfect score on the SAT. My understanding is that only about 1,000 kids out of 2 million test takers (.05%) get a perfect score.
How can what be?
How can they observe that a perfect score is the golden ticket to acceptance when most high schools donât even have a single student that achieves one. I agree with your larger point, though, there are some parents that think a better SAT score makes their applicant more worthy. But since elite schools in this country donât rack and stack, a good SAT score is only a tiny part of the entire picture.
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I didnât say that âthey observe that a perfect score is the golden ticket to acceptance.â I said they strive to get a perfect score because they feel it will boost their chances. They usually donât succeed in getting the score, but they work and work and work to try to get that score as close to perfect as they can because they believe, based on the available information, that it is their best chance to improve their admission chances. And without a perfect score (or very, very close) the chances are low.
I always think back to when a fellow parent expressed extreme disappointment in their childâs SAT score, how the score was not going to be good enough to get them into the schools they had their heart set on, and how they had to double down studying and take it again. Their score was 1560. That is the cult of standardized tests.
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There are lunatic parents everywhere, and many many who do not understand holistic admissions.
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But how many people are really like that. Most parents I know arenât under the illusion that a high score guarantees anything. I donât know how anyone could look at a school that accepts 5% of applicants and think their kid has a good chance (absent a hook).
Itâs not the case at every college, but in general grade distribution tends to go up when college selectivity goes up. Colleges that have a larger portion of high achieving students often have a much larger portion receiving âAâ and âBâ grades than Cal Sate LA. For example, Harvardâs most recent senior survey shows a median GPA of 3.9. The overwhelming majority of grades at Harvard are Aâs. Extremely few get Câs, let alone fail out.
The non-for-profit 4-year colleges that have the lowest grade distribution tend to be non-selective publics, such as directional states with open enrollment. For example, West Georgia is one of a small minority of colleges that gradeinflation.com lists as having an average GPA below 3.0. Their most recent grade distribution shows an average of 14% of grades were D or worse.