The ‘Missing Middle’ at Ivy-Plus Colleges

Applying to College
81

Yep. To build on what @1NJParent said, if you wonder why elite colleges in the US are the way they are (lavish spending outside of academics, which also means experiences; admissions practices; price discrimination with high list prices and fin aid), just ask yourself “what do rich people/alums who donate to this college want?”.

They definitely don’t want dear alma mater to turn in to a free-tuition barebones public German-style uni that admits by test scores. They do want to be proud of their school and for it to climb the US News rankings.

Though I shouldn’t just blame rich people. The bald fact is that huge portions of the applicant pool (and/or their parents) want the same things and are almost lemming-like in how much weight they give to the US News rankings, admit rates, etc.

82

Totally agree with the above two posts regarding the optics of admitting low-SES students and the catering to what the schools’ true clientele - the wealthy and influential - wants.

I always get a laugh when I read many of the threads and comments on here. The ones that always say something like, “diversity is so important to us - especially diversity of SES and race - these are essential to my kids’ prospective choices.” Always left unsaid of course is that exposure to such diversity could have been achieved for their kids by just not living in the expensive, exclusive, homogeneous suburb. It would even have been cheaper!

High zoot colleges are in the business of providing a catered diversity of SES. Just a few ornaments on the tree, a little chrome on the wheels.

83

@PurpleTitan Not sure which elite schools you have in mind. At the group involved in the study, the trend over the last decade has been toward expanded financial aid, reduction or elimination of loans, matching aid packages and expanded outreach to underserved populations. Have you seen the dorms at Brown? It’s not as if these schools are plowing money into climbing walls and lazy rivers. Most don’t even have air conditioning in the dorms. For roughly 75-80% of the population, HYPSM would be essentially free. It’s not out of the question that within a decade those schools would be discussing eliminating tuition altogether, but I’m not sure that making college free for families earning 600k a year is a high priority for anyone, alums or big donors or anyone else.

84

The Feb 2020 Chetty study referenced in the original post emphasizes portion of students attending colleges, not portion accepted. Portion attending often has more to do with rate of applications for selected group than it does with acceptance rate for selected group.

The report mentions that Ivy Plus colleges had the following portion of students from different income quintiles at the time of the sample (1980-82 birth cohort).

Actual Income Distribution at Ivy+ Colleges
Highest Quintile Income – 68.4% of students
2nd Highest Qunitile – 13.4% of students
Middle Quintile Income – 8.7% of students
2nd Lowest Quintile – 5.7% of students
Lowest Quintile Income – 3.8% of students

More than 2/3 of students at Ivy+ colleges were from the top quintile of income, while only 3.8% were from the bottom quintile. This sounds bad. However, when they look at expected percentages based on SAT/ACT test scores, race, and state residence; then the distribution still remains skewed in favor of top quintile. Specific numbers are below.

Expected Income Distribution at Ivy+ Colleges Based on Test Scores +…
Highest Quintile Incomce – 57.8% of students
2nd Highest Qunitile – 18.5% of students
Middle Quintile Income – 12.1% of students
2nd Lowest Quintile – 7.3% of students
Lowest Quintile Income – 4.4% of students

If colleges gave a boost on SAT/ACT for lower/middle income students based on the lower expected SAT/ACT for lower/middle income students, then the percentages change to the following. This is the effect of a strong hook for being low income, and a significant hook for being middle income.

Expected Income Distribution at Ivy+ Colleges Based on Test Scores with Score Boost for Low/Middle Income Students
Highest Quintile Income – 34.3% of students
2nd Highest Qunitile – 21.2% of students
Middle Quintile Income – 17.2% of students
2nd Lowest Quintile – 15.5% of students
Lowest Quintile Income – 11.8% of students

I think the conclusion is highest quintile income students are more likely to apply to Ivy+ colleges, more likely to have qualifying SAT/ACT scores, and more likely to be accepted. This results in the top quintile income being dramatically overrepresented at Ivy+ colleges, as well as other highly selective colleges.

Lowest quintile income are the least likely to apply and by far the least likely to have qualifying SAT/ACT scores. The rare few who apply and have qualifying SAT/ACT scores may be slightly more likely to be admitted than middle income students with similar SAT/ACT scores. This is not inconsistent with other sources such as the Harvard internal report at http://samv91khoyt2i553a2t1s05i-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Doc-421-112-May-1-2013-Memorandum.pdf , which shows a significant admission boost for low income students (far less than boost for ALDC hooks). Specific numbers are below.

Harvard Admit Rate by Income
<$40k income: ~20% of applicants had 1500+ SAT scores. Expected 6% admit rate based on qualifications, actually had 11% admit rate

$40-80k income: ~25% of applicants had 1500+ SAT scores. Expected 8% admit rate based on qualifications, actually had 11% admit rate

$80-120k income: ~35% of applicants had 1500+ SAT scores. Expected 9% admit rate based on qualifications, actually had 9% admit rate

85

But such a conversation needs to have a consistent definition of “middle class”. The referenced paper uses the 20th to 80th percentile incomes, or $25k to $130k. But it appears that many here have a very different definition where “middle class” does not get college financial aid anywhere, or $265k+ income, which is 95th+ percentile of income, or 84th+ percentile of income even in expensive metros.

86

@NearlyDone2024 As a parent of a high stat student with applications currently pending… this isn’t theoretical. What we are seeing in our group of high stats students here - the ED full pay kids, many often applying to the same schools, are successful. Those who cant play the ED game and who aren’t athletes or URM or Pell Grant/Quest bridge, are waiting for their RD results.

My student is in at our U flagship with a large scholarship. So my student decided to apply to some of these Ivy Plus schools. Some of their QB friends have already received acceptances at 2 of these schools. My student has higher test scores, higher GPA and slightly higher income… we don’t expect our student to get a spot… because they don’t fall in the bottom or top groups… we are not alone.

My next high stats kid won’t bother applying to the Ivy Plus… it seems a waste of time and energy. We learned this time that there are great schools with merit aid where they can succeed.

We learned alot… the first kid applied, likely won’t be getting in as the realities of this donut hole becomes clearer here locally. We wont make that mistake again with our next kid.

87

@SATXMom2 I’d check out the Harvard paper posted by data10. It doesn’t support the thesis that a middle income student is somehow disadvantaged in terms of admission. I can tell you that in my area there are plenty of middle class kids admitted to these schools RD, and of course many more who aren’t. The odds aren’t great but you might want to wait and see what happens.

88

“It doesn’t support the thesis that a middle income student is somehow disadvantaged in terms of admission”

Actually, @politeperson, @Data10’s post does support that thesis. His numbers show that those in the $80-120K income range get admitted at a rate that is proportional to their stats. But those at lower incomes than that get admitted at a rate that is higher than proportional to stats. That means that kids from families making more than $120K and are unhooked must be admitted at rates that are lower than their stats would indicate.

BTW, sure, for 80-some percentage of the general populace, HYPSM would be essentially free. Yet that group consistently makes up something like 20% of the HYPSM undergrad student body (give or take). Full-pays still make up 40% or more of the student body at HYPSM. Those are not facts that makes one think that HYPSM could or will forgo charging tuition any time soon.

89

@PurpleTitan Are we looking at the same chart, exhibit 3? It shows the 120-160k income band admitted at the predicted rate, 10%.

It’s true that the 160-200k band is admitted at 10% rather than the predicted 11%, and 200k+ at 12% vs the predicted 13%. I suppose if you want to claim those two highest income bands are middle income, you could argue for a very small relative disadvantage vs expected admit rates. But that still results in admit rates very close to, or above, other income bands.

90

They’re discriminating against low income students…

by accepting a high percentage of low income students?

[quote=“OneMoreToGo2021, post:82, topic:2084000”]

Totally agree with the above two posts regarding the optics of admitting low-SES students and the catering to what the schools’ true clientele - the wealthy and influential - wants.[\quote]

And preferentially admitting low income students is just an evil plot by the rich…

Reminds me of another thread where the SAT was obviously biased towards the wealthy and getting rid of the SAT would undoubtedly help the wealthy…

91

I have sympathy for the waitress at the Waffle House who pays her state taxes and cannot afford to send her kid to the state flagship U (that’s where the real arms race in terms of spending occurs- not at the Ivies. That’s where the blizzard of snazzy sports arenas, fancy food courts, brand new apartment complexes for students with all singles, funded by bond issues has occurred. Compare those gorgeous dorms to the “sophomore slums” at Yale for a giggle…).

The ivies educate a tiny percentage of the college going kids in America. But the lock- out of the middle class and the “striving to be” middle class by the public institutions who were expressly created to educate the citizens of their states is where you should be directing your ire.

Data has posted on another thread a terrific analysis which answers my question “how can Hofstra charge as much as Harvard”. Data- sorry, I don’t recall which thread or I would link to it.

There is a lot of explaining to do in Higher Ed these days around finances- but blaming Harvard because a family earning $150K will feel strapped sending their kid to Harvard is not one of the things that needs explaining. Parents who take out a second mortgage to pay for Pace, or University of New Haven, or Fairfield U- that needs explaining.

1 Like
92

Harvard admits 250 unhooked students per sex. Per year.

Why threads focus on them as anything representing broad opportunity or affordability for the thousands of highly qualified students of the middle class is a mystery. Dozens of threads. It’s simply monotonous.

Add in all of the Ivy plus cohort and it’s still a statistical rounding error against the problem worth addressing in this study.

The biggest issue I believe revolves around judging education as a competition or status symbol versus a tool. This is a bit of wishful thinking. It’s a real shame to see talented and hardworking students look at their state flagship or near equivalents at an incredible value as a failure.

93

@RichInPitt

Please take a look at the study and the charts.

What I wrote is entirely accurate based upon the findings of the research, which I am merely summarizing.

Poor applicants at and below the Pell grant level are disproportionately favored over other less affluent applicants just above the Pell grant level, Both groups are less affluent, both groups need significant financial aid, but the Pell grant and below applicants can be reported differently by the colleges, and used to increase rankings, so they are strongly favored.

High income, full pay applicants are favored among equally qualified applicants. Pell grant level applicants, many of whom are URMs and first generation students, are favored. If two groups are favored, which groups are not? Unhooked middle class and lower middle class applicants who are not Pell grant eligible have the least chance for admission to elite colleges.

That’s what the study shows.

94

@NearlyDone2024 The Pell grant study you’re referring to involved two unnamed schools. Likely not schools in this Ivy plus group. The data we do have regarding Harvard, cited by data10, doesn’t show the phenomenon you’re pointing to. It might well be true of schools not in this group though.

ETA: the reason I say the colleges likely aren’t in this group is that the authors suggest the discontinuity is related to financial aid policies. That wouldn’t be the case at most of these schools as full aid extends well into middle income quintiles.

95

Harvard gets picked on because, well, it’s Harvard. Harvard is representative of the elite institutions in higher education. It’s also a trendsetter. If Harvard leads, the others are likely to follow. The most privileged among us would still be more than well-represented in these elite institutions without the special preferences. Perhaps one of these days Harvard would react positively to its critics regarding these special preferences and make Harvard, and other institutions like it, better places for everyone.

96

Note that Pell grant eligibility extends into what some may consider the “middle class”. The dependent student parental income levels where one may get a Pell grant (not necessarily the maximum Pell grant) can extend to the 40th percentile income or higher (e.g. $50,000; see https://fafsa.ed.gov/spa/fafsa4c/#/landing ). For comparison, the Opportunity Insights study referenced originally suggests that the 20th-80th percentiles are “middle class”. This means that the finding of a drop in enrollment between the lowest and second lowest quintiles does not exactly match what one may expect if colleges were specifically favoring applicants based on the Pell threshold (which would show a difference between the second lowest and the middle quintile).

97

To get into Ivy plus is more than just getting an education because there are many other schools that could provide just as good of education. It is a club that gives additional advantages later on in life. It is not about first job out of college or average salary the first 1-5 years. We complain about all male clubs because they prevent women from “doing business at the golf course.” Those very exclusive clubs (not just country clubs) still consider family background, connections, and where one went to school. Getting into one of those schools is getting into a club.

98

@politeperson

Let’s use an example from an elite LAC.
http://colbyechonews.com/college-admits-over-200-students-for-early-decision-rounds-i-and-ii-to-fill-class-of-2024/

“Demographically, Proto shared that ‘for the Class of 2024 admitted through Colby’s early rounds, 41% of students will be receiving financial aid and approximately 19% will be Pell grant recipients. 33% of students self-identify as students of color, and 16% are first generation to college students. Nearly 10% of students are non-US citizens.’”

Analysis:

59% of ED accepted applicants to Colby this year did not qualify for financial aid. Let’s put the family income of these applicants as roughly $250,000 or higher.

Of the remaining 41% who qualified for financial aid, about half - 19% - were Pell grant eligible and likely first generation applicants.

That leaves 22% of the ED accepted applicants with incomes in the $50,000 and $250,000 range. Just 22% for that entire range, from lower middle class through upper middle class, depending on how middle class is defined.

Of that 22%, a significant portion are likely hooked candidates. Applicants who are URM, recruited athletes, faculty kids, or less affluent legacies, or even first generation applicants.

The percent of seats available for unhooked middle class applicants with families incomes between $50,000 - $250,000 and college educated parents must therefore be much smaller than 22%. 5%? 10%?

Colby is but one example among many.

99

@NearlyDone2024 yes, but Colby is not among the Ivies plus that were the subjects of the study. That is exactly the point. If we’re talking about Ivies, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Chicago, let’s discuss them and be accurate about it. But let’s avoid using admissions or FA policies from some random group of ‘elites’ and conflating them with Ivies plus. They’re very different. Some of the criticisms people are making would be valid If aimed at other privates but not when aimed at the group being studied.

100

I assume you mean the article about Pell grants from your earlier post, not the study that was the focus of the thread. The discontinuity in enrollment at the Pell grant threshold in the graph is based on an analysis of 2 unnamed institutions that were cherry picked because of their large increase in Pell grant % over a relatively short period. It shows that those 2 unnamed universities appear to have tried to increase Pell grant % during the specified years, but it’s a stretch to assume all other colleges have the same admission system. That Pell grant chart was made for a news story and linked to the article. It does not appear to exist in the actual peer reviewed study, which is at https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/19-001.pdf .

The Harvard lawsuit outlines how they identify SES “disadvantaged” students while being need blind, and not having direct information about parents’ income. The system is far more complex than just looking at Pell grants. Pell grant eligibility was actually not mentioned as a part of the information used to estimate whether the applicant is SES “disadvantaged,” and given an associated admission boost (relatively small compared to ALDC hook). I’ve seen references to a similar systems at other Ivies.

It’s also not accurate to assume that highly selective colleges favor applicants because they are high income, full pay. I expect the increased chance of admission at highly selective colleges is generally less direct, particularly at need blind colleges. For example, the study linked in the OP found that if admission was done by randomly selecting students who had SAT scores within the college’s existing range, then the majority of students at Ivy+ colleges would be from top quintile income and only ~4% would be from bottom quintile income. If there is a qualifying SAT/ACT score or strong focus on test scores, then higher income applicants are expected to be overrepresented. Higher income applicants also have a much higher rate of ALDC hooks than typical, which can give a strong advantage to specific hooked higher income applicants. However, I would not assume that an unhooked higher income kid has a big advantage over unhooked kids at other income levels, who have similar qualifications.

The previously linked Harvard internal study instead suggested a slight disadvantage among top qunitile income applicants (top quntile is >$130k) compared to similarly qualified* middle income applicants, under their admission criteria besides income/SES. Specific numbers are below:

Harvard Admit Rate by Income


[QUOTE=""]

$200k income^: ~45% of applicants had 1500+ SAT scores. Expected 13% admit rate based on qualifications*, actually had 12% admit rate

[/QUOTE]

$120-160k income: ~40% of applicants had 1500+ SAT scores. Expected 11% admit rate based on qualifications*, actually had 10% admit rate

$80-120k income: ~35% of applicants had 1500+ SAT scores. Expected 9% admit rate based on qualifications*, actually had 9% admit rate

^Only applicants who applied for FA are included, so >$250k families are likely underrepresented
*“Qualifications” include reader ratings of applicant, stats, AL hooks, race, and gender