I don’t find the info startling at all. About 25%of the kids at my one son’s prep school went to ivies. The focus was on HPY and about 10% of the kids got in there, I would say more than half of them had very strong legacy, development, celebrity factors, sometimes all three. URMs who went to the school had excellent chances of getting into top colleges since the preparation, course difficulty were there, and I also suspect to markedly balance the effect that family and other such factors had on acceptance to those schools. Without being the top of the top, the average, unhooked applicant could well have a smaller chance of acceptance to the top schools.
But then when it came to smaller selective schools, the top LACs, there was defintiely an advantage in gaining acceptance coming from such a school.
When I lived in a huge public school district in the midwest which was considered pretty danged upscale, but not in the category of Scarsdale or New Trier, if more than one kid got into HPY, it was a surprise. no more than 5 to all of the ivies and top schools, LACs and whatever included. But then how many applied to them? The big time goal was to get into Flagship U and that’s where about half the kids ended up going with the other half going to other state schools, public or private and some to neighboring publics. Not that many going to private schools more than a few hours away. Just didn’t happen and I watched the trends year in and year out. About 95% went to 4 year colleges with 85-90% going to 4 year schools, so this was a college prep area with full menu of AP courses offered.
When you look at the average SAT of some of these special schools, you’ll find that they are similar to the top colleges, so where does one expect those kids will give it a go? That’s where the difference is among those “elite” schools, public or private, and the others. Private alone doesn’t do it I’m familiar with the college destinations of a number of Catholic high schools., and again the ones that send a larger percentage of kids to the more selective school, are predictive by their SAT1 range. Two similar such schools in my area–and the differential in the mid 50% test score numbers will tell you which school send more kids to the more selective schools. Then You go look at schools like Stuyvessant, Regis, Trinity, where the kids are prescreened primarily by test scores, and you know that these are kids that will be applying and getting into the top schools.
So really, one should be looking at the test score spreads. When I look at those at the great public school, the ranges are unremarkable and do point to most kids going State U. The question then becomes how many or what percent of the top kids there are also getting top SAT scores. Are the ones nailing the 2300 scores, not getting into the top school at the same rate as those from Private Prep down the road where a full quarter of their kids are getting into Ivys and the like.
I can also tell you that the mindset is different at different schools in terms of where to apply. Around here, the % of kids at the private school and higher rated public districts tend to eschew the state schools. It’s changed, with the climbing prices and the economy, but it’s still not considered a great accomplishment in some circles to go to a SUNY whereas going to Big State U was like the ultimate hurrah at where I used to live.