<p>Here’s the link about the shrimp.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.ejfoundation.org/page211.htmlshrimp.html[/url]”>http://www.ejfoundation.org/page211.htmlshrimp.html</a></p>
<p>I believe India has admitted there were mistakes in the shrimp farm efforts and are working to improve the programs. Hardly the first mistake India has ever made. </p>
<p><a href=“Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia-Pacific”>Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia-Pacific;
<p>well at least the futures look better [Pre-Market:</a> Stock Trading Before the Markets Open from CNNMoney](<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html]Pre-Market:”>http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html)</p>
<p>Uhhh Sax, those are Monday night futures. You take the Sunday futures and add or subtract them with the Monday futures to get an idea where we are opening.</p>
<p>We are doing better than Japan. Japan is down 1,000 points the last two days.</p>
<p>And so far the US Monday futures are not continuing the downturn from Sunday night. We are still looking down about 500 points as of 5:15 PM P.</p>
<p>Do we get the cut tomorrow morning or not?</p>
<p>Sax, if stocks really get hit, they will be better values. </p>
<p>Inflation isn’t going to be a big problem if the stock market takes a hit.</p>
<p>Interest rates cuts are a mixed bag. There is some inflationary pressures that could be made worse. PPI was at a 27-year high at the last read. 27 years ago was Reagan’s first year. That year, the Fed’s #1 concern was inflation and they jacked up rates.</p>
<p>dstark: wait…WHAT? It’s not a running total???</p>
<p>No. Everyday is a new day. Those are Monday night futures only.</p>
<p>Here is the running total.</p>
<p>[url=<a href=“http://bloomberg.com/index_americas.html]Bloomberg.com[/url”>http://bloomberg.com/index_americas.html]Bloomberg.com[/url</a>]</p>
<p>Scroll down and look at the right.</p>
<p>The US markets are having a small rally. Dow Jones futures is now down 432.</p>
<p>Well,darn. I guess the million dollar question is where is the bottom. I’m still out because nothing has changed but darn…it’s getting very interesting. Bet we have a rally tomorrow but then back to a downward trend. That’s my best guess. Good grief. </p>
<p>all this time I thought that was a running total…guess I haven’t looked much on the weekend :)</p>
<p>The holiday messed things up.</p>
<p>If you are out, you should be happy. Stocks are getting cheaper.</p>
<p>Investors who are buyers should be happy that stock prices are declining. Those who are fully invested or who are sellers might not be too happy.</p>
<p>Ouch, it does not look good: CNN’s countdown shows futures sinking even deeper. However, my gut feeling tells me the bottom is not here yet. I’m glad I took my profits (now if I could only pry that cash out of the broker’s hands and bury it somewhere in the backyard until I have to write that tuition check :)). Husband sold some of his stocks, too. He is my overly optimistic investor. When he is in the selling mood, beware.</p>
<p>Just stay healthy. This too shall pass…</p>
<p><a href=“The economy in crisis - Jan. 21, 2008”>The economy in crisis - Jan. 21, 2008;
<p>However, just about all business deals done these days are debt-financed, so interest rates are the primary concern. Unfortunately, the fortunes of Main Street are linked to those of Wall Street. I think the temptation to lower rates will be too much for the Fed to resist, even with the perils that entails.</p>
<p>Dadguy, great, great link.</p>
<p>Bernanke isn’t Volcker.</p>
<p>If Bernanke doesn’t lower rates this month, inflation is over. Commodity markets are already imploding.</p>
<p>Bernanke is going to lower rates.</p>
<p>This recession is different from past recessions. This is a too much debt in the system recession. Recessions that are caused by too much inventory are easy to fix. Recessions caused by too much debt and bloated asset prices are much harder to fix.</p>
<p>Look at Japan. In 1990, the Nikkei was around 39,000. 18 years later, it is around 13,000.</p>
<p>Japan could not get its banking system fixed. Every year they thought the banks had solved their loan problems and then…loan problems would resurface.</p>
<p>One thing the US does better than Japan is we let companies go broke and new companies form in their place. Japan was always fighting to keep the broke companies solvent.</p>
<p>I hope we don’t repeat that in the US. </p>
<p>Unlike the Volcker years inflation is lower now. Asset prices are dropping. Home values are falling. Now stock prices are falling.</p>
<p>If we counted home prices in the inflation numbers we would have seen that inflation was too high between 2003 and 2006. We would also see that inflation is not that much of a problem now.</p>
<p>This shows that it is important to gather data and measure data accurately. If we did, we would have had higher interest rates sooner and the housing bubble and the credit bubble wouldn’t have happened.</p>
<p>Now, with inaccurate data, we are going to overstate inflation. I think Bernanke is going to lower rates anyway and I hate to say this, but I think he should.</p>
<p>Our banking system is just too screwed up. Japan raised its interest rates for 1 year after the stock market started down and their banking issues started. The country still hasn’t recovered.</p>
<p>My analysis could be wrong. :)</p>
<p>[Bloomberg.com:</a> Worldwide](<a href=“Bloomberg Politics - Bloomberg”>Bloomberg Politics - Bloomberg)</p>
<p>dstark: Good morning and nice call. Brilliant.</p>
<p>Very interesting analysis. I did not know that about Japan. Thanks for the background.</p>
<p>Sadly, I’m only half out as it is a battle w/the buy and hold side of the investing team. It is a great buying opportunity. Of course the question is when.</p>
<p>I believe many people are unaware of whats happening to their investments and as their end of yr. statements come in they will start to sit up and pay attention. Then they will investigate further and see the carnage of the last 3 weeks. That’ll make things interesting.</p>
<p>Aggain, nice call for you. It’s hard to talk investing as it’s so intense a subject.It has been fun/informative talking in this thread.</p>
<p>Now comes the hard part. :)</p>
<p>I’d rather have oil high–where it is–and keep exports increasing than make imports cheaper. Imports for most things we buy are already way cheap. Who needs slacks and shirts priced less than $10? Plasma TVs are already down 50% in the last 2 years. Computers–dirt cheap. Porsche and BMW have so much profit in their cars they can eat the lower dollar value through greater efficiency.</p>
<p>and fewer and fewer decent jobs because we import so much…if you aint working, you can’t buy it no matter how cheap</p>
<p>ah, yes, the economy is just so rosy, now if I could find those old threads…</p>
<p>The best cure for imports is increasing exports. Exports are up significantly–much more than imports in % change. In Norma Rae we learned that working in mills was loud crappy work. Well, now they don’t have to do that anymore. Wonder what old Norma is up to these days?</p>
<p>Rate cuts and mortages–good short article</p>
<p><a href=“Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News”>Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News;
<p>Nice article.</p>
<p>“As for those looking to buy a home, that is, get a new mortgage, while ARM rates may be lower, the mortgage landscape is still a far far different tundra than it was just a year ago. You cant do a stated income loan anymore, and you cant do 100 percent financing. Tighter standards dont change with a rate cut.”</p>
<p>“You cant do a stated income loan anymore, and you cant do 100 percent financing. Tighter standards dont change with a rate cut.”</p>
<p>That’s a good thing.</p>
<p>Sounds pretty hilarious actually. That they ever thought that was ever a good sound idea. And these are some of the same people we are supposed to listen to now and bail out. GRRRRRRRRRR.</p>