@cosmicfish …This is a very interesting paper. Thanks for posting. A few comments…
I actually agree with these numbers looking at my little part of the world (umich). From taking a job as an assistant prof to getting tenure 5-7 years later. I see something like ~70-75%…rough estimate. People no doubt leave.
At Michigan, people leave to other universities that…sad to say…are often better (MIT or Berkeley). Also, professors often leave to go to universities that are just as good. For example, somebody may have a significant other in California, so they go to California. I would say this happens to 15% to 20% of the assistant profs hired by Michigan. Michigan also does its fair share of poaching too (like 1/3 to 1/2 of their hires). It regularly takes profs who have worked for a few years at another university. I don’t necessarily see this a negative about university life. In fact, it is nice that profs have some flexibility to move around. I’ve worked in Industry. For my unpleasant time in industry, I averaged working at a new company every 2.33 years. This is not uncommon for engineers.
With all of this being said, I have no doubt heard stories of a professor who gets a “continue with concerns” after 3 years in their review, and they quit to do something else with their life. I did speak to an individual where this happened at Michigan. I agreed with her that some of the concerns were unfair. She was a minority woman (the article mentions this disparity between minorities and women succeeding vs. white men…I’m not saying it did or didn’t play a role…it is interesting though in that you wonder if and how it played a role.) She seemed to be having major family issues while she was a prof…this couldn’t have made things any easier
I am sure at least 5-10% people quit and either go back to industry or become a staff member at the university.