<p>@coureur
Perhaps a big part of the bubble bursting will be the loss of consumer confidence, so to say. Right now there’s this rhetoric that EVERYBODY MUST MUST MUST GO TO COLLEGE AND ANYBODY WHO DOESN’T IS A FAILURE FOR LIFE AT 18, which I think pushes a lot of people who are historically and socioeconomically ‘out of the loop’ of Higher Ed to fork out $thousands in cash or loan for a product that doesn’t warrant that kind of money, simply because the pressure to get any kind of education is so overwhelming. I’d say people are starting to get a hint already that maybe college isn’t a good idea for everyone, but if something drastic does happen, a good proportion of applicants may suddenly open their eyes to the fact that they’re chasing after a mirage.</p>
<p>Essentially, the poor, the misinformed, and the stupid that all of you are criticising here have been told by the elites of this country (whom they trust) to ABOVE ALL invest in a college education, and promised prosperity in this ‘knowledge economy’. The fact that the elites have failed to deliver prosperity is as much a factor in this problem as the recklessness of $100,000 student debtees. The essential tradeoff for a public that is willing to uphold the rigid status quo of a lawful Western economy is that those at the top of the status quo give the public a predictable standard of living. If you want people to think for themselves, you should go live in Russia.</p>
<p>As regards to the space available list, one can derive a useful comparison to the UK UCAS clearance list. Quite a few well-regarded institutions are on there every year as well. Granted, UK admission is subject-based, so some good universities posted on there just have low enrollment for rarer majors, but my friend got in last year to a Russel Group uni for physics on clearance, which is to say enrollment isn’t everything.</p>
<p>Also, some places like Hampshire just have a really weird vibe, and the no grades thing is not for everyone, so that could impact their underenrollment, especially in transfer classes.</p>
<p>Good for them, but it’s going to take a LOT of people making similar decisions before the Fancy U really starts hurting. Harvard had 30,000 applicants this year for ~1650 places in its freshman class. So for every person who smartens up and walks away to State U there are dozens more eager to take his spot at Fancy U. And many of them are more than willing to go into debt to make the dream come true.</p>
<p>I think ones hurting won’t be Fancy U but will be For Profit U and Bottom-Feeder U that charge Fancy U prices.</p>
<p>I really would hate to see the business model changed to all college classes going online or even most classes delivered online. I personally would not want to hire anyone with a college degree delivered in this format. There is no way to verify the person really did the work that signed up for the class. </p>
<p>The higher cost of education will not come down until the demand comes down. We give grants and tons of FA to people with a 1.8 high school GPA and a 1100 combine SAT score to attend college so why would costs come down? </p>
<p>I don’t think everyone needs to go to college and I think it hurts more than it helps.</p>
<p>@courier Oh, the Fancy U wasn’t Harvard. If it were Harvard, I guess the family would borrow and pay and consider themselves lucky. I call it Fancy U because it was a rich kids school, rated I think someplace in the top 50. I agree For Profit U and Bottom-Feeder U will go down first (nobody will miss them). What I would like to see though, is not Bottom-Feeder U failing, but Middle-Tier U bringing their tuition in line with reality</p>
<p>While it is hard to imagine now that online degrees will someday carry prestige given the perception of current offerings, the fact that schools such as Stanford, MIT, Princeton, Michigan and oher elites are getting into the game with plans to eventually offer credit for online classes will completely change the landscape. These certifications will come with testing controls and perhaps some “in person” reqirements but if the top schools provide these opportunities, why wouldn’t most people see the cost/benefit advantage there.</p>
<p>This really could l to lead to a much more level playing field. Let’s hope academic leaders are driven by enough altruism to want to make higher learning available to all who can hack it.</p>
<p>" Let’s hope academic leaders are driven by enough altruism to want to make higher learning available to all who can hack it."</p>
<p>Not to sound all cynical here, but I don’t think altruism is or will be the underlying reason any university is pursuing the path of offering credit for online classes.</p>
<p>IMO on-line classes will continue to modestly grow as a nice supplement to a traditional college curriculum, but they won’t be the huge game-changer that some are envisioning. I can’t see any current bricks-and-mortar colleges ever going completely, or even predominantly, on-line. I mean, does anyone seriously believe that MIT or Stanford is going to shutter all their classrooms, dorms, and dining halls and install a bunch of computer servers in their place?</p>
<p>Now there currently are “colleges” that exist entirely on-line, but it’s going to be a long, long time before any of them makes a dent in the USNews or any other serious ranking of college quality. For them to gain even the respectability, much less the prestige, that real colleges currently enjoy is going to be a very long, hard climb.</p>
<p>I would never hire anyone who did 100% online college with or without certifications. I do, however, see those outlets as useful for those already working who simply need “a” degree or continuing education. There’s a big difference IMO - experience received in the labs for one and the ability to work well with others in person outside of their bedroom for two.</p>
<p>But my generation will only be hiring for the next 15 - 25 years or so (pending actual retirement). Who knows what it will be like after that?</p>
<p>Coureur, I’m sure MIT and Stanford will continue to offer in-person classes and a residential experience for decades. But, a four-year residential undergrad experience may turn into a luxury that is too expensive for middle and lower-income families. Colleges that lack the brand name status of elite schools but charge similar prices will begin to feel the pain sooner.</p>
<p>And, what if (as seems likely) some elite institutions try to grab MORE market share by offering degrees online with robust mechanisms for community and interaction? What if they issue degrees with no indication that the student never set foot on campus? That will put even more pressure on the weakly branded schools who are struggling to fill their seats and pay their bills right now. </p>
<p>I’d hate to see the four-year residential experience become unaffordable for most, but perhaps decades hence that concept will be as quaint as an apprentice living in his master’s shop while he learns a trade. Business is already moving heavily in the direction of remote interaction (webex, gotomeeting), virtual events, and private online communities.</p>
<p>Not wanting to hijack the thread (and I’ll get back to it, promise) but my D is in the process of applying for Dietetic Internships with a concurrent Master’s program. One urban school she & I visited, fairly highly regarded, said straight out that anywhere between 30-50% of the classes are online. This is a 22-month program in total at a cost of over $40,000. I told her she was insane if this would be a top 5 choice of hers, even though she’s footing the bill.</p>
<p>Back on topic–interesting question as to what schools da bubble, if/when it bursts, will affect first. I have to think some of the ‘designer’ LAC’s, popular in the last 10 years or so, that have jacked tuition over $40K per year, will be the first to feel the pain, especially if they don’t have the endowment to hand out merit like so much candy. I mean, heaven forbid tuition should ever go down! </p>
<p>Actually, it should. In fact, the first schools to do exactly that will get some nice pub out of it, even if they make it up on the backside with less merit awards.</p>
<p>Discussion is important to learning. That is why continued improvement in video chat with multiple participants will contribute to the transition to online degrees. I know many people think online “sections” are somehow a lesser experience than physical tertulias, but really, as with so many new technologies, it’s a question of mental adjustment. Just like there is no significant advantage to reading a traditional book rather than electronic, or using old photo albums rather than viewing pics on screens, there is no real reason to require a physical presence in discussion groups.</p>
<p>Online classes are ridiculous. I don’t think they will ever supplement a real class, until we can have virtual reality. I took two last year and learned barely nothing in either of them. Online classes simply can’t replicate having face to face contact with your teacher or even just your classmates. In one of my classes, I wanted to ask the professor a simple question clarifying an assignment that was due. I don’t think his email came back until the day or so before the assignment was due. Imagine if I actually had a problem with the material. I think the greatest things about my classes were that I never had to leave my house though.</p>
<p>Also, I find it hard to imagine that any degree could be considered prestigious or even good without it being either selective to begin with or rigorous and cutting people out later. Right now, anyone can take classes from Harvard professors. It’s called Harvard Extension School. </p>
<p>I think online classes actually destroy the greatest things top private schools like MIT have to offer. What’s great about MIT isn’t just the professors (who may or may not be good at teaching), but rather the other students and individualized attention. You get none of this from online classes.</p>
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<p>Actually there is one benefit to reading traditional books. There’s a study linking placement of words on the paper with learning retention. Many e-readers have endless scrolling and thus lack this.</p>
<p>I also prefer to read physical books out of personal preference. I’m going to buy my textbooks in print, not electronic.</p>
<p>Chaosakita, online coursework is still in its infancy. I agree if it were nothing more than posting lectures online, it could not compete with the traditional classroom. But it will become so much more than that! There is no reason that you can’t have “face to face” chats with professors online, let alone peer engagement and personalized feedback. Prestige and selectivity will be based on objective accomplishment as only those who actually do the work and pass the controlled exams will get credit.</p>
<p>I’ll declare that on-line education has arrived when I see graduates from on-line colleges getting accepted into first rate medical schools, law schools, business schools, and PhD programs.</p>
<p>^Yup, it is bound to happen within the next couple of decades–at which point prestigious law, phd and even med degrees will be available online, albeit the latter will always necessarily have lab and clinical components. Just because some aspects of some kinds of degrees will reqire in situ training, doesn’t mean that they won’t move all that they can online for efficiency’s sake.</p>
<p>Who knows what online classes will have in the future? I’m sure it will be very mainstream…sometime in the future. But right now, I feel like the hubbub about online classes is like people having hubbub over online grocery shopping because there was Pets.com. Over a decade later, most people are still shopping for their groceries and pet supplies in person.</p>
<p>I suppose online classes promote “efficiency.” But I’m not going to trade in my 4-year residential college experience I’m going to get for ANYTHING in the world. Maybe that isn’t the most “efficient” way to spend my time. But I’m not in a rush for anything.</p>
<p>I think we’re a couple decades away from on-line colleges carrying the same credibility as brick and mortar institutions. I would also not put tremendous weight on space availability studies for reasons someone pointed out. Endowments are still one “public” piece of information that can tell you something about how a college is going to weather the next decade. More importantly are colleges dipping into the endowment to fund operations. If I remember correctly, Centre College and Kalamazoo both has pretty good endowment funds.</p>