It’s great that your child is already down to his top choices. Your question will be more relevant to more people here if you ask again in April. There probably aren’t that many parents on CC whose kids are already deciding where they will attend college in Aug/Sep of 2023.
As a general response, one kid waited until the last minute, then decided again after a waitlist offer. The other kid decided based on money. He simply didn’t see how spending many thousands of dollars more was going to make him happier. He’s happy at the well-regarded instate option.