<p>These chance questions confuse me. The OPs stats are within the published student profile range. To my untrained eye the ECs look fine. Duke will accept 3,000 students that fit the profile and a number far greater then that will fit the profile and be rejected. In the end admission to selective colleges isn’t about being qualified for which there are an abundance of candidates (see 29,000 RD applicants for 3,000 spots), it is about ranking applicants. The person outside of Duke admissions that can define the randomness of those ranking decisions doesn’t exist.</p>