There is what is possible and there is what is probable. While anecdotes abound about what may be possible, we focused on what is probable. We ran an EFC calculator, reviewed merit aid pages, and used the financial calculators for each school that D was interested in to determine what the probable cost was going to be. D generally did not apply to schools that we estimated to be beyond our price range. We did not want to spend time, money, and effort on auditioning for schools that would end up being too expensive if she did get in (we are from Texas so on-campus auditions at many schools involved very expensive and time-consuming trips, and you can only do so many auditions at Unifieds).
D’s merit/talent offers generally matched what we estimated very closely. She did get a very large set of scholarships that brought a $50,000+ school down to about $25,000, but she also received some great scholarships from less expensive schools that brought the costs down to $15-17,000. The rest of the $45,000+ schools did not get under $30,000 (ignoring loan offers). Our EFC put any need-based fin aid out of range. D had very good but not Ivy-level grades and test scores.