<p>Generally UChicago’s graduation rate has been rising about 1 percentage point every year. Based on the new freshman retention rate (98%) and the increased selectivity, I would expect to see UChicago’s graduation rate rise to 95-98% over the next few years. That would make UChicago comparable with the few other schools that have a 98%+ freshman retention rate. (It only takes one year to determine the freshman retention rate, but graduation rate takes six years so the figure now refers back to classes entering in 2004. Back then UChicago was accepting more than 40% of applications. I’m sure the class entering in 2011 will have a higher graduation rate!) UChicago’s retention rate and graduation rate increased more than any other top school’s over the past 5 years.</p>