Chances are dependent upon on how many admitted students enroll by May 1 and how many spots are still available after that date. The waitlist admits can vary from year to year and below is the data for the last 3 years.
Waitlist 2024 UC Counselor Conference Data
Number of qualified applicants offered a place on waiting list
Since the major data information is posted well after the Fall students are enrolled, it could include those that are admitted off the waitlist. You could always contact admissions and ask.
The UC Irvine Class of 2029 Waitlist and Appeal stats are incredibly useful for students planning their next steps. The data shows how competitive and uncertain the process can be—definitely a waiting game! Meanwhile, for a break from the stress, check out this collection of Shadow Fight 2 old versions