@MentorDad - my own calculations suggest something north of 30% but others might have better underlying assumptions than I do. You can probably conclude that 30+% was the ED/EDII admit rate this year but not sure that’s sustainable over the longer term as more get clued in that 1) UChicago likes that commitment and 2) they are generous with need-based aid (not sure about merit - my own kid’s National Merit scholarship was cut this year over prior years so guessing they are less generous in this category LOL).
@CU123’s strategy is definitely one to consider if your son thinks he has a good shot at an SCEA admission at another first or even a 2nd choice. The school hasn’t really discussed EDII at all so I’m really wondering how many new applications they had vs. deferred from UChicago EA. My hunch is that they were expecting more EDII new apps. than they got but I’m just going off the smaller numbers in the later pools (in total) compared to class of 2020 as well as some unofficial comments from AO that there might have been some confusion for the applicants this year given all the changes. Just a hunch, but guessing if they were swamped with EDII applications we would have heard some bragging from Admissions. If the “confusion” persists then that might be the unheralded way into the class of 2022 as it seems to have been for the class of 2021. Especially if there are fewer EA deferreds (because there are fewer EA’s) 