@JBStillFlying - I don’t know if the college has future growth plans, but the U. certainly has plans to grow it’s endowment. I doubt the U. would spend down simply to avoid the tax, especially if gifts for the endowment continue to come in.
Also, the endowment, especially split between schools, will be encouraged to grow. You can bet the Law School, Business School, etc. want to grow their endowments.
From an optics perspective, as well, the U. will want to grow it’s endowment. The Board probably tracks peers closely, and Chicago is one of the few schools that’s seen it’s endowment standing dip significantly.
Looked at broadly, the U. endowment went from #3 in the nation in 1958 to #16 in 1998, and hasn’t really budged meaningfully for the past 20 years. (In 2018, the endowment was still stuck at #16 in the nation.)
The lack of upward trend - for literally two or three decades, is not something the board will look upon favorably, even in light of an endowment tax.
https://magazine.uchicago.edu/9904/html/curriculum.htm
Endowments in 2000: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d01/dt357.asp
Endowments in 2018: https://www.chronicle.com/article/Which-Colleges-Have-the/245587
(The biggest winners have been UPenn and Northwestern, which moved from #17 and #16 in 2000 to #7 and #10 more recently. Columbia has flagged slightly, from #9 in 2000 to #12, and Cornell has flagged slightly as well, from #14 to #18.)
I don’t know if any other school has done a drop from 3 to 16.