Mask mandates are directly tied to infection rate which, in turn, is directly tied to numbers vaccinated, as numerous states are showing (even those “cold weather” states that haven’t had a nice spring). This is why in our state they have dropped the mandate following the CDC guidelines. The state opened accessibility to everyone on 3/30 and our infection numbers reversed beginning two weeks later and fell a third by early May. Since that time, they have fallen two thirds from that early May number, despite more opening up (and just to be clear, the weather hasn’t been cooperating in that). The state had yet to have a comparable decline w/o a total lockdown. Just one state, but a decent case study.
Edit to add: you are correct that I don’t have a scientific background. Most of the explanations from the experts are pretty clear, and the policy decisions of those who do have the appropriate background is a signal enough for me. What about you? (since you seem to be in disagreement with them by predicting another surge in the late fall, as opposed to seeing Covid as a manageable infection going forward).