Waitlisted applicants only have a good chance if fewer than expected admitted students do not SIR. There is no way to predict until after May 1 but hopefully this will improve the waitlist chances but no guarantees. The additional 5000 UC students include Freshman and Transfers and was agreed upon by the Governor and the UC Chancellor for this Fall 2016.
http://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-ln-uc-growth-20151119-story.html