I wouldn’t rely too much on Niche for anything FWIW.
Did you try your schools naviance/scoir? That is admittedly a bit hard due to the lack of major specifics, but if you are in MA a HUGE number of kids will likely have a applied…I see kids at our (MA) HS that have stats like your kids that are waitlisted or even outright denied (obv I can only see GPA/SAT)…I do agree it is shocking, but that is how it goes, it seems.
Also did you use Umass stats and GPA calc too for apples to apples? they have some of best clearest up to date data out there…
Admissions Statistics : UMass Amherst (dig around and you can see by CS level data).