Disregarding what fraction of students apply, having 50% applied students accepted is not off the chart as that is the state average. Students at some school would have less than 50% admission rate and others have higher. Obviously, feeder school has higher (near 75%). But disregarding which school is, I see no reason those in the grey area to give up their chance although it may be lower than the 50% chance of average applicant. Top 20 feeder schools only fill up 16% of the total seats. It makes sense for in state student to apply to an in state low reach state flagship school for financial reason and quality of the school. Again, I disagree with those saying only “almost certainly to get in” (i.e. safety, low match, match) to apply from in state. You may think otherwise.