I agree, in general, with frontpage’s statements (except #2, which I’ll get to).
However, good students can go to top graduate programs from virtually anywhere. I went to a top 10 PhD program in my field (at Columbia) from a small, second-tier liberal arts college, and I had classmates who went everywhere from Harvard and Penn to the small regional public schools in their area. Graduate professors realize that not everyone can afford to go to Columbia or Yale or UMN or Michigan; they also know that very smart and accomplished students go to their local public regional universities all the time. What you do in college is far, far more important than where you go.
So yes, if you go to UW-La Crosse or Stevens Point but get involved - do research, do a summer REU, cultivate relationships with professors, develop your research interests and write a great statement - you can, indeed, get into high-end universities for graduate school.*
As for #2…well, it’s nice if your recommenders are known to the professors from your desired programs. But it’s not necessary. The vast majority of successful PhD students got letters of recommendation from someone the graduate professors have never heard of. It’s much more important what your recommenders say about you than the fact that they are famous. I’ve been a reviewer for the NSF graduate research fellowship before, which is similar to graduate admissions in some ways. I’ve read recommendations from very famous people in my field that were lackluster, and I’ve read amazing letters from people I’d never heard of before. The quality of the letter was MUCH more important than who it came from.
What is the cost differential between attending the UW branch campuses and something like UMN or College of the Atlantic? Sometimes it’s worth it to spend a little more to go to a better college, but if you have to borrow more than around $30K in undergrad or your parents are going deep into debt to send you there, then it’s not worth it.
*I am assuming you mean academic MS and PhD programs. Admissions to professional schools like an MBA are a little different, and I do believe more emphasis is put on where you went to college.