Unless You Have a 2200 SAT Don't Bother

Parents Forum
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<p>

That’s not an appropriate way of identifying a safety. Test scores do NOT play that big of a role. You need to look at (a) admission criteria of the school, and (b) percentage of students admitted. Being in the upper 25% for test scores at a school that accepts only 30% of applicants makes the school a match (or target) – NOT a safety. Being in the top 25% for test score at a school that accepts 80% of its applicants probably does make it a safety.</p>

<p>A “safety” is a school where admission is essentially guaranteed. Many fairly selective in-state public schools can be safeties, even if a student’s test scores are average or below norm for that school, if other criteria guarantee admission – for example, class rank. (My d. didn’t have great test scores, but she was guaranteed admission to our state u. system because she ranked within the top 4% of her graduating class). </p>

<p>I still think everyone should apply to at least 2 safeties (and they have to be financial safeties as well – i.e., a school you know you can afford) – just in case they are mistaken about one, and also to leave the student with some level of choice in the event that s/he is not accepted to or cannot afford the other schools. But the vast majority of more selective schools are going to look beyond test scores for admissions, so it is a mistake to use reported SAT ranges in that fashion. </p>

<p>Of course, a match or even reach school with rolling or early admissions becomes a “safety” the day the student is accepted, so it is always a good idea to take advantage of programs that allow the student to get an early answer without obligating them to attend.</p>

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<p>There are many great colleges that would accept a student with those credentials, and many of them would offer merit money. However, the Ivies, Georgetown, etc. are probably not in the ball game.</p>

<p>One reach school is nice. Multiple reach schools is a waste of time and money, and will set a kid up for disappointment.</p>

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<p>

Er… unless the student gets accepted to several.</p>

<p>My daughter was accepted to reach schools but waitlisted/deferred at schools that were less selective on paper than the reach schools (in terms of percentage admitted, score ranges) – but when I think about it, it really isn’t all that surprising. The reach schools were very carefully targeted – they had strong academic departments in areas where my daughter was also strong, and we had identified clear reasons why they might look favorably on my daughter. I think a lot less thought went into the selection of the “match” schools – d. applied to one merely because the sent an unsolicited offer to apply for an early answer, with free application form – and another mostly because of its location and because her high school g.c. said it was a match for her. </p>

<p>Again, you can’t determine whether a school is a reach/match/safety merely by looking at score range or reported admission rates. You’ve got to drill down somewhat into specifics – what does that school look for in students? what are the strengths of the particular student? does the school ask applicants to identify a major when applying, and if so, are some majors tougher to get into than others? </p>

<p>I think that financial aid has to play a necessary part in the application strategy as well. If the student is going to qualify for substantial need based aid, it is simply a fact that the colleges which promise to meet full need and are most generous with aid tend to be the most selective. My d. made the mistake of applying to an out-of-state public, a safety, without checking the financial aid policies – of course she was accepted, but that would have been the most expensive school of the bunch, because they offered no grant aid at all. So a reach-heavy application strategy can be very smart for someone who has a strong possibility of being accepted at reach schools known to be generous with need-based aid.</p>

<p>The strategy is different for a family whose kid will not qualify for much need based aid but may qualify for merit money. Then admission to a reach may by invariably be unaffordable. So for that family, it makes sense to target schools where the student is likely to get generous merit aid – and most typically those will be schools that that the student considers a low-end match or a safety, since merit money generally goes to the strongest applicants.</p>

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<p>"what else would you call the kid who regularly (and on-the-fly) shows his math teachers quicker alternative ways to solve the problems that they present? "
“Brilliant” comes to mind. Or a Polymath. but geek will do too, lol.</p>

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<p>I know a certain 3rd grade teacher who had other names for a kid like that… :(</p>

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<p>^^ I hope that teacher has long since retired!!!</p>

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<p>Yes, she retired right after having my S in her class. NO WAY were we going to let S2 get her for math.</p>

<p>I prayed for years that this teacher was in continued good health so she could read her weekly school system newsletter and see what S accomplished despite her vitriol.</p>

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<p>

I disagree. You just need to have a safety (or - I agree with Calmom - preferably two) that you like and you can apply to as many reaches as you like. My older son was a kid for whom all the matches were reaches (HYPMS). He applied to 6 reaches and 2 safeties. Got into 2 reaches and a safety. Younger son applied to 6 reaches and 1 safety. He’d planned on two safeties, but one of the reaches turned into a safety when he unexpectedly was accepted EA. He still loved one of his safeties and they offered a very tempting merit scholarship.</p>

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<p>* You’ve got to drill down somewhat into specifics – what does that school look for in students? what are the strengths of the particular student? does the school ask applicants to identify a major when applying, and if so, are some majors tougher to get into than others? *</p>

<p>Oy, my head hurts. I’m not sure I have the brains or energy for that much strategizing, LOL. </p>

<p>Older son is our first to go through this process. We and he didn’t have a clue. He applied to several in-state publics (all safeties except one match/reach) just because, well, they were there. He got into all of them. Also applied to several small Catholic schools and was admitted with merit aid (but, alas, not enough). Also applied to a reach private becauuse they invited him to apply for a competitive scholarship. Wait-listed there, but no big deal – he would NEVER have fit in there. (It’s a wealthy preppy place that’s 85% Greek. Not DS’s style at all.)</p>

<p>After all this, he’s going out of state to Alabama because they offered him a full ride. (He’s an NMF.) Of our in-state publics, only one offered any merit aid – and while that award was generous, it couldn’t compete with UA’s full ride.</p>

<p>So, we had no strategy to speak of, and the process was a total mess, but DS ended up OK. All’s well that ends well.</p>

<p>For younger son, we have refined a very simple strategy, based on what we’ve learned (the hard way) from older son’s experiences:</p>

<p>*** Don’t even bother with schools that offer crummy merit aid. Even if they’re safeties.
*** The PSAT is the most important test on the planet. Ace that, become an NMF, and then go to a school that buys NMFs.
*** If you don’t ace the PSAT, at least try to get a 1400 on the CR & W SAT, so you can get full tuition at a school that offers great merit aid.
*** If all else fails, go to your local CC for two years, then transfer to a decent in-state public for junior and senior years.
*** Don’t knock yourself out (as older son did) getting an 800 on the Latin SAT II (or any other SAT II for that matter). Nobody cares. Most schools don’t give a flip about SAT IIs because US News does not factor them into its ratings. So, why kill yourself for something adcoms and scholarship people could not care less about? </p>

<p>This is all predicated on the assumption that you don’t want to pay full freight for four years anywhere, because (a) it’s not worth it; and (b) you can’t afford it.</p>

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<p>The OP was asking about getting into top schools with a 2030 SAT. </p>

<p>The OP said nothing about finances. </p>

<p>For those of us who qualified for need based aid – and had kids who didn’t have amazing stats – the schools on the elite end of the spectrum offered the best bet financially. Those are the schools that promise to meet need, and that are generous in the way they define need. </p>

<p>So that’s where it starts to make a lot of sense to develop an intelligent application strategy directed to schools that seem like impossible reaches for the test-obsessed.</p>

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<p>

</p>

<p>Test scores are the single most convenient factor for estimating and comparing chances. However, as calmom rightly points out, you also need to consider the admit rate (at least).</p>

<p>As a very rough rule of thumb, you could try the following formula:

  1. identify the school’s percentile ranking for the applicant’s test score (25% / 50% / 75%)
  2. multiply that percentage by the school’s admit rate
  3. multiply that result by 4 </p>

<p>So P = 4<em>S</em>A (where P is the product, S the test score percentile, A the admit rate)</p>

<p>In my judgement, in general:
If P<.75, the school is a reach;
If .75<=P<1, the school is an admission match;
If P>=1, the school is an admission safety.</p>

<p> Score %ile … Admit Rate … Product … Chance<br>
75% … 24% … 0.72 … reach
75% … 25% … 0.75 … match
75% … 34% … 1.02 … safety
50% … 37% … 0.74 … reach
50% … 38% … 0.76 … match
50% … 50% … 1 … safety
25% … 74% … 0.74 … reach
25% … 75% … 0.75 … match
25% … 100% … 1 … safety </p>

<p>Implications<br>
If admit rate <25% (e.g. Ivies, T10 LACs), then the school is a reach for anyone
If admit rate <34% (e.g. top ~30 LACs, top state flagships), then the school is at best a match for anyone (never a safety)*
If admit rate <75% (e.g. many state flagships), and scores are in the bottom quartile, then the school may still be a reach
If admit rate <100% (e.g. many directional state universities), and scores are in the bottom quartile, then the school may not be a true admission safety </p>

<ul>
<li>Some schools with admit rates as high as 40%-50% may not be safeties for anyone, because they apply holistic criteria to a strong, self-selecting applicant pool. Examples include some of the women’s colleges.</li>
</ul>

<p>Hooks, test-optional policies, and many other factors can easily confound this formula; it assumes grades are roughly in line with scores.</p>

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<p>In addition to the splendid calculations above, many “safety” schools need a student to “show them the love”, in order to take a chance on admitting what may otherwise look like an overqualified student who probably would not end up attending.This is especially true for students whose stats put them above the 75% of accepted students.
It is far too easy to just send out an additional app these days, and college admissions officers know this.</p>

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<p>I assume that when we say a school is a reach for anyone, we mean a school is a reach for anyone except for maybe a statistically insignificant number of kids.</p>

<p>I suspect if you are a young lady from a Braziilian favela, and you score 2400 on your SATS plus win the IMO you could get away with calling MIT a match.</p>

<p>Well, maybe not his year. Certainly not a safety :)</p>

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<h1>152</h1>

<p>Friend, that is one of the best posts I’ve ever read on this board. Well done, sir or madam.</p>

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<p>

</p>

<p>Sorry – I need help with your examples, as none of them showed where the “4” in your formula came in.</p>

<p>In otherwords, in order to calculate “reach,” for example for Yale:</p>

<ol>
<li> Test Score is at or above 75% range.</li>
<li> Yale Admit rate is 8%</li>
<li> multiply by 4</li>
</ol>

<p>So the calculation would be:</p>

<p>.75 x .08 = .06, then: .06 x 4 = .24</p>

<p>So, does that mean that that applicant would have a 24% chance of getting into Yale?</p>

<p>On the other hand, if :</p>

<ol>
<li> Test Score is within 50% range.</li>
<li> Yale Admit rate is 8%</li>
<li> multiply by 4</li>
</ol>

<p>So the calculation would be:</p>

<p>.50 x .08 = .04, then: .04 x 4 = .16</p>

<p>So, does that mean that that applicant would have a 16% chance of getting into Yale?</p>

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<p>

No.

No.</p>

<p>The “4” is a multiplier needed to set the Product, P, to “1” for safeties. This is meant to suggest statistical certainty for safeties. You can think of P as representing relative likelihood of admission based on the value of S (score percentile) and A (admit rate). However, P does not represent absolute probability of admission to any school. I believe the chances of admission to Yale, for example, are significantly lower than the numbers calculated above.</p>

<p>This is intended only as a rough rule of thumb to quickly locate the reach, match, and safety boundaries based on two easily identified numbers (admit rate and score percentile).</p>

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<p>If you get a perfect score on your ACT/SAT and rank first in your class, you tie or exceed every applicant. That doesn’t, however, mean you can treat the HYPSM group as safeties, because they routinely reject students with these specs while admitted those with slightly less perfect ones. As with IQ tests, a ceiling effect comes into play here that makes predicting results at the upper extreme somewhat unreliable.</p>

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<p>Our son’s experience was made far less stressful by an early acceptance from our Sate Flagship which had rolling admission decisions. Now, I admit that it didn’t hurt that said Sate Flagship is UMich and generally well respected. From there, he applied to only high-match and reach schools.</p>

<p>If the option is available, having an early acceptance in hand certainly relieves some of the stress.</p>

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<p>

</p>

<p>I assume you mean to say that you tie or exceed every applicant with respect to SAT/ACT and rank. And in actuality, you can’t really say you tie or exceed with respect to rank, because the concept of “rank” is not universal. Different schools rank differently, and even if they use the same means to rank, they rank against different student populations.</p>

<p>Some kids write essays which are preferred by the adcom. Therefore, wrt the essay those kids have “tied or exceeded” every other applicant.</p>

<p>Adittionally, as everyone knows, there is a plethora of other factors colleges take into accouunt, as has been expressed ad infinitem on trhis website. Some kids take fifteen APs and score all fives, others take fewer and/or get a 4 or two. Some kids enter and win math or chem olympiads, or Intel competitions. </p>

<p>So perfect ACT/SAT, while a significant achievement, does not mean you “tie or exceed” every other applicant - except with respect to those test scores. </p>

<p>The concept of “tie or exceed” wrt admissions is something that is sort of difficult to define. Since the goal is to be admitted, I suppose you could say that if student A gets in someplace, they “exceeded” student B who didn’t get in. But that is silly in this context, IMO.</p>

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<p>Feel compelled to add this non-statistical observation:</p>

<p>On paper, our son was a terrific match for MIT, if such a thing exists. He was deferred and then rejected. </p>

<p>What???</p>

<p>Within 1 year of our son’s matriculation elsewhere, I was fully convinced that MIT would not have been the best place for this guy. Could he have succeeded? Yes, I think so. Might he have blossomed? Not so sure. (Full disclosure: MIT was probably more about me than about him. No one from his HS had EVER gone to MIT. I just knew he had the stuff.; he probably did—academically. But good for whoever determined that he was not a good fit. That person or committee was right.)</p>