Personally I believe that people that think they are going to get into a top school for whatever reason, URM, perfect scores, great EC’s, etc. fail to put enough emphasis on their essays. The admissions people have always said that one thing alone won’t determine whether you get in. They have to read 100’s of essays so if your essay doesn’t engage them…well you know what happens. The competition is extraordinary, if the person reading your essay feels they understand who you are through your writing then you have a good chance, some applicants actually send in an essay on their accomplishments…kiss of death.