Thanks for the exhaustive list.
when you say low probability, is it because of my stats and hence low probability of acceptance.
Or low probability to get merit aid and hence not be in budget ?
If you are planning a math major with a CS minor or CS courses, you will need to look closely at each school to be sure that you will have access to the CS courses you want. At schools with extremely popular CS majors, there may be issues getting access.
For example at UW Seattle, many CS courses are reserved for CS majors. They offer a restricted set of CS courses designed for non-majors. Non-Major Options - Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering
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@Muu9 is correct that if VPA classes are not offered as part of the schoolâs curriculum, the UCâs will not penalize the applicant and will still review their application. UCâs can admit by exception.
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In terms of the buckets that I classified schools as, those were my guesses as to your chances for admission, regardless of the cost of the institution.
Please realize that most of the schools in your âlow probabilityâ category are low probability schools for students with a 4.0/1600. These particular schools are extremely popular with students with very high stats and they do not have enough spots to accommodate all of the highly qualified applicants that they receive. (And, to be clear, these colleges look at far more than just âstatsâ when selecting their students.)
Additionally, schools like UIUC and UWash, for CS, are also very popular with very strong candidates. UWash accepts about 2-3% of its out-of-state students, and Iâve heard that UIUC accepts about 7% of its applicants (and I believe thatâs inclusive of in-state students, too). (ETA: To be clear, these percentages are for students applying for the CS majors, not to the universities in general.)
Just because a school has a high acceptance rate does not mean it doesnât have excellent programs. U. of Minnesota, for instance, isnât as popular as its Big 10 siblings of Michigan and Wisconsin, but it still provides an excellent education.
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thx @DadTwoGirls , math with cs might be a good interdisciplinary focus.
no, stanford tennis would be a reach given the level iâm at currently.
cornell/stanford is a high reach, but need to take a chance 
canada is an option (mcgill, waterloo and toronto), but family is not sure
thx. is OOS acceptance indicated in college data somewhere ?
Yes, search for each collegeâs Common Data Set. Some have it on their main website under their general admit statistics as well.
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To be blunt: there is no point in taking this chance, because you wonât be able to afford these schools even if youâre accepted. In fact, that might feel a lot worse than being rejected.
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At the bottom of section C1 of a schoolâs Common Data Set (CDS), there is a table that one can use to calculate those percentages.
To find a schoolâs CDS, do an internet search for âCollegeNameâ and âCommon Data Setâ and it should pull up.
Some collegesâ institutional research departments go into far greater depth than othersâ and will have significant amounts of data available beyond the CDS. Some (like Virginia Tech, data link) will allow you to search by gender, in-state or not, and by major (very important when colleges admit by major). Others are not nearly as robust. I think it would be reasonable to ask an admission officer for that information if it is not available somewhere online.
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The three schools that you mentioned are all very good. You will need to check to see what they cost. Admissions in Canada is very stats based, and I think that your stats make admissions very likely. At least in our experience applying is also very straightforward, particularly compared to applications to universities in the US.
You might also want to consider McMaster, Alberta, Queenâs, Simon Fraser, UBC, and/or U.Victoria, and perhaps Concordia and Dalhousie. You might find some variation in terms of what they cost for international students. I am probably missing some schools but this is a good start.
Since you mentioned graduate school as an option, we do have some experience with students getting their bachelorâs degree in Canada and some form of graduate degree in the US. This is at least possible.
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This is a really important point.
At Purdue Iâd encourage you to apply for CS because youâd be able to take whatever math courses you want as a CS major, but not vice versa. You may need to do a deep dive on other schools on your list as well.
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