US Economy 1 to 10

I live in NYC and my only income right now is social security, enough to pay my rent but not much more. I am fortunate to have savings to make up the difference. I have an extremely modest lifestyle, which I’m used to–very few times in my life has my income exceeded the median. I see prices lower in the local (walking distance; no car: I rent when I need one) supermarkets, and I can take the subway to Trader Joe’s, where I can afford to spend $.23/banana after many years at $.19. And they are on sale at my local market for $.59/lb starting tomorrow. My rent increases are controlled by the NYC government. This is a very good place (at least for me) to age in place. So I’d give the economy a 9.

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It’s more that assigning a 1-10 number without any direction of what that 1-10 means is arbitrary and meaningless, so I’ll choose something near the middle as a baseline reference that can be used to compare if it has gone up/down. Regarding my feelings about the economy,

I’m more focused on stock market performance than general economic measures. By some measures these 2 categories are negatively correlated with each other (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2012.00385.x ). Having lived through the dot com crash and 2008 crash, I have some concerns that another crash could be on the horizon. There are many similarities between the current US stock market that is dominated by overvalued tech stocks and the 1990s tech bubble that was dominated by overvalued tech stocks. I still invest in US stock market every week, including earlier today. However, I also keep a good amount in alternative investments. US stocks only represent a small minority of my overall net worth. The fed rate being >5% with fixed income investments paying the highest levels in awhile aligns well with my desire to diversify.

From a more economic perspective, I do recognize that macroeconomic stats have much improved from the post-COVID instability. While inflation is higher than in the past, it no longer looks like inflation may rapidly spiral to increasingly large values, with a expectations based feedback loop. Unemployment has recovered from the COVID spike and is back something similar to the low pre-COVID levels. GDP has recovered and is increasing. In general macroeconomic stats seem positive. An economist might say the economy looks healthy.

From a more personal perspective, I own a home and am not planning to move, so the near record home unaffordability is not a big personal concern. My home value continues to increase faster than long time historical averages. While I observe inflation in my day to day spending at grocery stores and such, I don’t spend enough for inflation to have a major personal impact. One area that I really notice an increase over previous years and may become a significant concern in the future is home insurance. I essentially only have one somewhat reasonably priced option, and that price is double what I paid several years ago. However, I think this is more a state level (CA) issue than a US economy issue. I might make a similar comment about much of the price increases I see, which are generally worse in CA than the US as a whole.

I also recognize that many segments of the population face severe economic challenges, more so than in most past years. I live in a VHCOL area of CA, where a basic condo cost $1M+ and a basic home cost $2M+. When combined with 7+% mortgage rates, this makes homes unaffordable for the overwhelming portion of new buyers and also increases rents. I personally know several persons whose married adult children have returned back to live with them due housing being unaffordable. Some young persons don’t see a longterm solution, expecting that their home savings will never catch up with the increasing housing costs, and high mortgage rates are here to stay, never dropping back down to 2-3% again. This is worsened when the high housing costs are combined with the some of the highest auto/gas, food, and utility costs in the US; which all seem to be increasing rapidly compared to previous years.

I’m not sure what 1-10 number that corresponds to?

But you’ve hit on an interesting contradiction here. Housing prices are not a zero sum game. So for every young person who can’t afford to buy a starter home, there’s a family already living in a starter home whose price has appreciated by… whatever the local housing market can bear. And for every starter home family who wants the McMansion (or comparable upgrade home) there’s a boomer couple of single living in one- who could easily cash out (if they bought their house 25 years ago or more, there’s PLENTY of equity there) but they don’t want to, because why downsize to a two bedroom condo with rules and neighbors if you’re living with a paid off mortgage in a five bedroom Colonial?

I see both sides of this. I’m not ready to downsize (and after a lifetime of bad real estate decisions, my current house is worth a lot more than I paid for it) but I see my married kids unable to afford anything.

But it’s a nuanced problem. It’s not just that “everything costs more including houses”-- someone is LIVING in that highly appreciated house, and for sure when they sell, are NOT pricing it below market just so that someone else’s 30 year old kid can afford to buy it!!!

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Everyone else picked a number. You picked a number. No one was asked to justify their number, nor did the OP justify theirs.

K.I.S.Data10 :wink:

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But it is all irrelevant and means absolutely nothing if we are not talking about the same scale, and don’t understand what people even mean.

So I’m picking number 27.2. And I’m not telling anyone why. Because I don’t have to.:laughing:

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I’d expect the greater seller reluctance is among persons who don’t have a paid off mortgage. Why give up a 2-3% mortgage that is essentially an inflation-protected arbitrage situation when the fed rate is >5%? Many in this group could not afford anything remotely comparable, if they sold and exchanged their existing 2-3% mortgage for a new 7+% mortgage.

Among the minority who has paid off mortgages in my area, taxes are a relevant factor. With $2M+ home prices, capital gains are often far beyond the $250k/$500k exemption, leading to hundreds of thousands in taxes upon selling. Property taxes are also based on 1% of purchase price under CA prop 13, so property taxes may increase by tens of thousands of $ per year, when selling a home purchased 25 years ago, and buying a comparable replacement.

Factors like the ones above make home owners as a whole very reluctant to sell. The limited supply of homes for sale allows high home prices to persist in my area, in spite of homes being unaffordable for the overwhelming portion of persons.

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I don’t live in California- and houses in my neighborhood are NOWHERE near the 2 million mark. Yes, the capital gains taxes are an issue. But many of my neighbors are my age or older, we’ve paid off our mortgages, so the conversations at the end of the driveways is NOT “I can’t afford to sell/buy something comparable”-- and if you’re selling a house where you’ve paid off the mortgage, you aren’t looking for another mortgage- you’re going to buy for cash. So it’s more like “Why should have to deal with a HOA or condo rules at this point in my life when I’m living in a house (way too big for me, but whatever) which is just costing me insurance, utilities and property taxes?”

But I’ve seen ups and downs, highs and lows. So this too shall pass!

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8-9.

Of course you ask on a day that the market tumbled :slight_smile:

Great market

Great investment returns

Great profit sharing bonuses

Nice raises (likely due to employee shortages)

Where I live - no income tax and crazy low property tax

It’s just been a great last few years.

But yes, things cost more - often a lot more.

Edit - I see the next message and @Izzy74 makes a great point. In two more weeks, I’ll be done with my mortgage and I will invest that money at a higher rate of return than a low interest rate environment - and yes that adds to my happiness with the economy. But my kid - paying crazy rent and one day wanting to buy a home - very different.

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I think this is a major factor. The economy is quite different for homeowners vs those who would like to own a home. A couple in their 50s who make 100k a year but bought their home 25 years ago, is quite different than a couple in their late 20s who would like to buy a home.

For one couple the economy may seem fine if a little inflationary, for the other couple, the economy is terrible.

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Check out interviews with Scott Galloway, who hits on how the deck is stacked against kids today. Here’s his TED Talk of a few weeks ago.

The houses I see couples in their late 20s buying or wanting to buy are not similar to my house. I thought we’d hit the jackpot when we bought our house in 1986. Young people in jobs similar to those H & I had are looking to buy something newer, larger and much fancier than what we thought was perfect back in the day. And I suppose my parents felt the same about us when we bought our house.

We own our house free and clear. We have no interest in selling/moving. It would probably cost us more due to higher taxes (our taxes are capped currently).

I think this depends on where you live. In our town 1200sqft “starter homes” are going for 800k in a few days. Young people are buying them up.

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I would give it a 5-6. My husband and I are doing well. However, I think those on the lower income brackets are really having a hard time.

This just happened to us. We are driving to a wedding out of state. We went to get gas after dinner. We passed a gas station by Sam’s club at $2.73. Sam’s was $2.89. We go back to the first station and husband started to fill up. As soon as he had finished the price on the sign went from $2.73 to $3.13. We got the last of the cheap gas. 40 cent increase in seconds. We were stunned.

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That’s how it works every holiday weekend around here. Our stations jumped 40 cents on Tuesday. No reason, other than the fact that the gas companies know that they can charge more & we will have no choice but to pay. And it has absolutely nothing to do with which party is in charge - happens every year.

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Seems like a formula can be made to predict what people will rate the economy, if they base their rating on economic and personal finance issues (and the middle number is an overall neutral feeling, not good or bad)…

Take your income percentile (0 to 99, or wealth percentile if in or near retirement), divide by 16 (rounded down) and add 2 to get a number from 2 to 8. Then add or subtract up to 2 points to account for your personal feelings on the economy.

However, some surveys indicate that many people rate the economy based on whether their political party controls the government.

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In college, instructors do not necessarily use typical high school grading scales. Typical high school grading scales force teachers to load up tests and graded work with easy stuff for C students to pass, with little room for harder stuff for B and A students.

This is our situation. We have a sub 3 percent mortgage on a house worth a lot more than we paid for it 9 years ago. There’s no way we could afford to buy a comparable house at 7 percent, plus the higher property taxes.

Eventually I think we will want to cash out and leave the area for a less expensive area. But certainly not now.

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We’ve devolved into paralysis by analysis.

This seemed like a gut feeling type of question originally.

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We always do. We’re too smart for our own good.

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This doesn’t happen in a “red hot” economy. I still give it a 3: