<p>So what happens if we found a technology that allows every producer to extract more oil? [Film/Classics:</a> The Man in the White Suit](<a href=“http://www.thecityreview.com/whitesui.html]Film/Classics:”>http://www.thecityreview.com/whitesui.html)</p>
<p>No matter where the oil goes it will have a good impact on our balance of payments with either lower imports or more exports. That’s a good thing with the weak dollar.</p>
<h2>“Perhaps, but if you look at the amount of oil that we get from the Middle East, the amount that could come from ANWR to displace a disruption of the flow from an unstable MidEast is huge.”</h2>
<p>Imho, this is exactly the reasoning for developing ANWR…for protection in the case of disruption scenario. It may not have a major effect on price or supply worldwide, but it is definitely a protective measure Americans should want in place. The Middle East is not the only unstable region from which the US imports a large chunk of crude…Venezuela is a major supplier as well. Imports from West Africa are on the rise as well. I can’t tell you how many times my husband has had to bug out of their West African operations due to civil unrest. </p>
<p>Again, if the okay to develop were given today, 5-10 years before a drop makes it to the lower 48. I think those who have a ‘whatever’ position on ANWR may think it’s just a matter of turning the spigot if we do get into a bind with supply…but that’s a very naive pov.</p>
<p>I’m not saying we’re close to this, but has anybody thought how we transition away from the Petrol Age? Will be able to rely on market forces for that since all the major producers have taken such great pains to game the market?</p>
<p>The time will come where we have to think about that, whether or not we drill up there or not.</p>
<p>You can have it 2 ways. You either let pure market forces determine the transition (and this requires entirely internalizing all costs of petroleum, including a rigorous form of internalizing the pollution externalities - otherwise the apparent cost of using petroleum is too low, and incentives to change to alternative fuels will be impacted) or you control the market and incentivize change through government programs, subsidies, etc.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, because of the corporate welfare and other issues that are involved in the oil market at the moment, we’ve already gone down the control the market route… so we either need to unilaterally remove all market involvement in the petroleum market, add some kind of system to internalize the pollution costs, and let the market determine the change, or we need to start pushing the change artificially. Either way should work; half-assing it between the two will not.</p>