Yes… it is often beyond unpredictable. I recall a few years ago someone posting that he had been admitted to Harvard, Yale, Princeton and Stanford but then rejected by both USC and UVa. While he should have simply been ecstatic about his options, he was instead upset by the perceived slight of being rejected by what he referred to as lesser schools. His argument was that both USC and UVa were practicing yield protection by rejecting someone that they predicted would not enroll if admitted.
A simple bit of advice to all future applicants… you cannot simply look at the stats being reported for those who have been admitted and draw any conclusion. You cannot project admissions, and especially not for the top thirty or so colleges and universities.
In 2017, my daughter made a matrix of stats, etc. for all 15 of the colleges and universities that she had applied to… and then crafted her predictions. She and I were way off when the final results came. For example, UVa (who admitted 27%) should have been a yes… Princeton (who admitted 6%) a no. The results were reversed. Every college makes its own subjective decisions.
USC routinely rejects 1000s of applicants with test scores in the 99th percentile and with unweighted 4.0 GPAs. So do HYPS and many other elite colleges. Each school does so because they are clearly willing to accept applicants with lower scores who bring other elements to their application package… like ECs, leadership roles, community involvement, strong essays, a compelling “Why _________?” reasoning, creativity, performance skills, URM status, FirstGen status, etc.
On Thursday, there will be many posts from surprised and excited applicants getting in who realistically thought they had no shot at admission to USC. There will also be posts from some who are shocked that they were passed over for those with lesser stats, etc.
I have said it many times… USC is looking to craft a diverse and well-rounded freshman class. That does not simply equate to pure scholars who make straight As and excel at standardized tests but do not somehow impress those reviewing the application packets enough in comparison to others. Some assume too much and just go through the motions when applying. Trained eyes can spot such. Maybe its a natural result when applicants are applying to a large # of schools. They may have failed to impress upon Admissions their underlying passions, etc. There will be 1000+ applicants admitted of the 7000 or so who may not have super stats but excel in other demonstrated ways. Something about their admission packets shined. And none of us can judge such. We are not in the room reviewing tens of thousands of applications and comparing them to each other.
To this year’s applicants. You have waited this long. Do not pre-judge. Simply wait and see. I am highly confident in USC’s ability to evaluate all of its applicants fairly and holistically. If admitted… congrats - USC is a great option, if financially feasible to attend. If not admitted… it’s not the end of the world. It is simply a #s game, and this time it did not turn in your favor. But you will overcome and excel regardless.
Good Luck