FWIW, our eldest son missed the National Merit cutoff by 1 point and it ate my heart out for a while. (Back then, I had no idea how it worked. The school told me he just needed to be in the top 1%. Not so - each state has a different cutoff and I didn’t know that. Had I understood, I would have had him prepare. But, because he had already met the top 1% bar as a sophomore, I didn’t think he had to. Lesson learned.) That said, the end result for my son without a NMF Presidential Scholarship and the two that did get it wasn’t that different. It is true that more of it was loans for #1 kid, but the end result is he got his degree from USC, wouldn’t have it any other way, and can manage the student loan payments.
I may be an outlier here but I think debt isn’t such a bad thing, depending on the circumstances. 3 of my kids were really invested in USC because of their particular majors and because we are a USC family. Our fourth kid was not particularly invested in USC, because it wasn’t the epitome for his career goals and he ended up with a much better financial situation at an elite university.
It really depends on how invested your kid is in USC and what you are willing to do. For me, I was willing to go into some debt to send my kids to USC, because it was the best place for their career goals and I was emotionally attached to USC. But, if you are a family that looks at USC as merely one of many fine schools and he could be happy anywhere then, of course, choose an option more financially viable.
I will also say that, if USC wants to start being more competitive with top tier students, it would be nice if they would revisit how they handle “need.” To someone who isn’t 100% invested in USC, why go to USC and accumulate debt, if you can go to Stanford, Vanderbilt, WashU, UChicago etc. and graduate with NO student loan debt? Seems like a no-brainer.
For 3 of my kids, it was not a simple call because USC was their #1. People may call me foolish, but kids have 4 years to pursue their dreams and I’m all for encouraging that, even if it means some debt.
Best of luck to you and your kid. It sounds like he will have some great options and everything works out in the end. Fight On!