International interest is declining (only slightly so far) due to the current government being blatantly anti-immigrant, so that part of the equation is easing up a little.
A well-chosen ED school beats the shotgun approach in terms of student stress. Visit, interview, show as much love as you can, and don’t reach too high, and you can get though the admissions cycle the easy way.
We didn’t ED and didn’t shotgun (just two reach-for-everyone schools). Because we don’t qualify for enough need-based aid to fit our ideal family budget, we didn’t ED. This left things open as far as deciding on whether the elite schools were really worth the loans. But, DD finished “just off the podium” on her two “lottery school” reaches. Deferred then rejected at one, and waitlisted at the other. If we had had more than two reaches or if she had committed ED, that might have been just enough to get an acceptance.
That being said, one of DD’s dual-enrollment profs really pushed the “avoid student loans” narrative so hard last term that she’s not even doing the letter of continuing interest at the waitlist school. She just doesn’t want even the standard federal student loan, and we live in a state with a desirable state flagship where she is accepted and can attend without borrowing.