Your hypothesis was good. Should you waste time applying ? The answer is if you will not qualify for need based aid and you don’t want to spend $80k, then no. There are many wonderful schools that are lower cost and not just the home school.
There are also schools that offer merit by income. Make less than $100k get x $$. With those you have to be wary of the line…assumes normal assets. My daughter was in at W&L, a strong liberal arts school with fantastic merit opprtunities…starting with the Johnson Scholarship. While she got in, we did not receive merit although she was a finalist and interviewed for a tuition only award. It’s $81k a year. At my income level they show 88% of kids receiving $38k on average.
I was one of the other 12%.
With KU affordable and an easy in, you have max flexibility. Use the NPCs to see your cost. If that’s too much and the school only offers need aid, save your time. Of it offers merit, take your shot !! As long as KU is truly seen as a winner in the family! As you’ve seen ther are other affordable safeties as well…strong schools like FSU which is rapidly gaining national respect.
There are also opportunities in her preferred areas…but if she ends up in a non preferred and mom’s wallet is fuller because if it, she’ll love and still have a wonderful experience.
Best of luck.