What does the child want to study? To me that is the most important. My daughter is interested in journalism/communications and also likes history and the like. State schools are very limiting on how you can dip into other schools and programs. (I went to a private college in the NE 100 years ago and didn’t realize this with my son who goes to a state school.)
Also, what type of school and size is important. My daughter wants OUT of Texas. Loves cities and the Northeast. (Austin isn’t a “city” like we know it.) So merit type of schools out there are in places that she pretty much dislikes. Rice is a great school but doesn’t have what she wants to study, etc. She hasn’t taken the SAT yet and also doesn’t have any national things your daughter has. So she’ll have to stand out more for the NE schools with being from Texas and her essays.
UT is HUGE in size and not her “bag”. Fingers crossed for her and for whatever our EFC will be once we know what our AGI will be next year. Oy.