I disagree with this. If you apply ED, you have a much greater chance of getting in, as evidenced by Syracuse’s 73% ED acceptance rate compared with their 53% regular decision rate. They’ll have a greater chance of accepting you because you’re showing that Syracuse is your #1 choice, and thus the admissions office will be more likely to pay less attention to the deficiencies in your application. The whole point of ED is to apply to your dream school, even if it’s a reach. Your stats are reasonably close with the average stats at Syracuse, and you have some impressive leadership in your ECs, so I would say go for it.