Is Exeter your dream school because you researched and visited dozens of other schools and determined that Exeter has specific programs or characteristics that were not available elsewhere and are indispensable for you to thrive? Or did you fixate on the fact that it is the largest and most well known without bothering to investigate whether there is a school out there that might be a better fit for you and allow you to blossom in ways that you might not at Exeter?
How you answer the question above will definitely affect your chances. AOs prefer candidates who understand and appreciate what makes their school truly different from the rest.