I don’t really think that you can speculate on financial aid. Schools give money to candidates they want. Yes, they have limited funds. But smaller schools can be generous too. If you are applying for aid, the best advice is to apply to many schools including schools with higher acceptance rates.
Both of my nieces went to religious schools that were not as competitive as their stats would have indicated. But they had very good experiences, terrific social lives, and were comfortable. And they were happy with the education.