As long as your SAT goes up a bit, UNC and UVA are definitely feasible. And Wake forest you will definitely get into.
Try to improve your CR and M scores of the SAT, because in my opinion those are far more important than writing.
Chance back?
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1749271-chances-for-nyu-stern-ed.html#latest