BS/MD is extremely competitive. Whether BS/MD or regular MD, planning for a specific school is never a good approach.
But being in Texas you have the trump card compared to other states and hence your chances for regular MD is better. For BS/MD, need to apply widely if you are keen about BS/MD since Tx has few programs only as you have mentioned.
Look the 2 threads created for BS/MD each year, one for discussion and second for the results thread. Especially the results thread will give an idea of the students who got admitted.