To get back to the OP’s question…there are plenty of MT programs with higher odds of getting accepted. You are right that the schools that pull more regionally than nationally have better odds. They have fewer kids auditioning, so the numbers alone make it a better chance. I will not name specific schools in this forum, with the exception of the school my daughter attends: The University of Utah. They have a fairly new BFA MT program (4th or 5th year). They attend Unifieds so they do audition many students, but their acceptance rate has been very high. I mean VERY high, like upwards of 75%. It’s just not a well-known program yet so there are many unknown factors that keep kids from attending. Their yield has varied. My daughter is a Sophomore and her class was the first one auditioned by the new head of the department. The Sophomore class originally yielded about 18, but this year’s Freshman class yielded about 32. I have no idea if they are going to adjust their acceptance rate to start reducing the yield. Previous classes were much more regional.
A year ago I would have hesitated to publicly state that their acceptance rate is so high because I equated a high acceptance rate with a less desirable program. And I thought it would imply my daughter was somehow less talented. But, you know what? My daughter is thriving there. She dances 1.5-2.5 hours/day, has private voice, acting classes, theater history, music theory, crew requirements, something called Dem Lab when all the MTs come together once/week. They have juries, work on their book, etc. Is it a perfect program? No, but they continue to make improvements to it all the time. And it provided an opportunity for my daughter to do what she loves and grow as an artist. I do sometimes wonder if she would be having a better experience at one of the “dream” schools she auditioned for, but we will never know so it’s just a moot point.
We are from NY so the idea of going to Utah was completely foreign to us. The school is big, has a top-25 ranked football team and a top-10 (?) basketball team. Salt Lake City (and the campus) is surrounded by mountains. Park City is less than a half hour away - home to Sundance Film Festival, great skiing, and a quaint town. SLC has a very strong arts community - BalletWest, lots of community theater, Shakespeare Festival, etc. And the U has inexpensive out-of-state tuition that gets much cheaper after the first year because it is very easy to get residency. My guess is it will catch on and when it does, they will have to lower their acceptance rate to keep the program from getting out of hand. But for now, there is no doubt it is easy to get in to. Surely there are other school out there with similar acceptance rates even if nobody mentions them by name.