I think at the ivies at least, ED is still mostly filled by ALDC candidates, leaving the vast majority who applied ED left to contend for the remaining spots. For example. Something like 9,460 students applied EA at Harvard and they accepted 740? 90% of recruited athletes are accepted and they make up 20% of the admitted class, but most of that 20% probably comes from EA. Another 15% comes from legacy, so that is about 391 and 293, or a combined 684 just from the A & the L. Most of the A & the L in ALDC are probably applying EA. So, I think without even factoring in D&C, it’s safe to say EA is still mostly wrapped up by ALDC, at least at the ivies. If anything, chances have gone down significantly because EA and ED application numbers have gone up significantly, so now the non ALDC, who likely make up the vast majority of those applications, are competing against many more applicants, whereas before most of the EA applicants were ALDC. So yes, anybody can apply ED/EA, and more are than ever before, but the admitted in that pool are still mostly ALDC.
In today’s hyper competitive environment (which is very real no matter how much people try to deny it), it is ok to apply to only 5 colleges, but if your child only applies to 5 colleges I have the following advice. I would make sure 1 of them is a stat based, rolling admission, you will be accepted within 5-10 days of submitting your app and probably receive good merit scholarships. Make 1 of them an ultra safety, 1 or 2 safeties and 1 or 2 targets. Because one of the safeties is probably now a target and the target might not be a target anymore. Do not apply to 5 targets or 4 targets and 1 safety. I don’t know if I would apply to a reach with only 5 applications in todays applicant pool and environment. From everything else I have observed (results) over the last year on CC, the lines have moved. Also, although my child did very well with acceptances (with the exception of Ivy) she knows many students who were not accepted anywhere except their safeties or their auto-admits. So, whether it’s 3, 5, 8 or 10, I think as many people have said balance is key. But I think many have tried to say and people don’t want to hear, the lines have been moving the past 5 years, but especially the last two years, so don’t look at 5 or 10 year old data. Don’t look at pre-covid data. If it predates 2020, it’s probably irrelevant.
Common App- it’s a horrible tool, if somebody figures out how to make that thing useful (and yet, not as bad as apply Texas). It is restrictive and limiting and not in a good way and like everything, everything has to be about school school School. So if you are for example somebody who is possibly an Olympic hopeful or do anything at an elite level, training 20-40 hours a week outside of school, there is no good way to convey that in common app (and most scholarship applications either- yeah, throwing lots of shade at you Coca Cola scholarship app). There is no good way to convert awards and honors form outside school either. It ends up making your application look empty - if you are lucky the school accepts resumes too. People hate common app because it means kids can apply to 20 schools easily- I hate common app because its terrible. Still never understood why for some schools it sent her AP scores and for others it sent the list without the scores.
Speaking of terrible tools - beware Naviance. Keep a very close eye on what Naviance does because in my daughter’s case it sent things to schools that it should not have sent. Specifically a LoR. It was set up properly in Naviance to be unique to one school only. Noticed somewhere along the line that it had been sent to several schools. D checked with teacher and she confirmed that she mentioned the university by name in her LoR. D talked to GC and confirmed it was set up properly in Naviance - called Naviance and they couldn’t explain why it was sent to multiple schools. They were basically like “oh well”. Did it impact the decision of a couple schools? Possibly, we’ll never know.