<p>QM: I think your 10,000 number is about 20% too high. All of those colleges have about 10% international students. So, by my count, the actual number of US students enrolling in those colleges in any year is about 8,500. At least 1,000 of them are athletic recruits who are certainly extraordinary, but not necessarily academically. (A small number of the athletic recruits are also international.) And a certain number will be there because of extraordinary accomplishments in nonacademic fields (I am thinking about Natalie Portman, Jodie Foster, Yo Yo Ma). So it’s really 7,500 slots, at most, probably less than that. Of course, each of the colleges admits more students than the slots it has available, but there is also a lot of overlap among the accepted applicants at each college. I don’t know how many kids are accepted on one of these colleges and don’t attend any of them, but if you take people only accepted at Caltech out of the mix (Caltech has completely different admission dynamics than the others) the number can’t be more than a few hundred. So the actual number of possibly-extraordinary “students” they admit is not likely higher than 8,000, and probably a good deal less.</p>
<p>That is fewer than one kid for every three high schools. But some of those high schools have names like Exeter, Andover, St. Paul’s, Stuyvesant, Harker, New Trier, Harvard-Westlake, Brearley, Dalton, Sidwell Friends, etc. So for normal high schools, suburban or not, the ratio is probably lower than 1:5. All other things being equal, your school will send one kid to one of those six colleges every 5 years. Of course, even some normal high schools do consistently better than that, which means other normal high schools do consistently worse. In other words, the drought you are observing may not be a function of changing standards at all, but just the law of averages.</p>
<p>I agree with you that there aren’t 10,000, or even 8,000 or 7,000 truly “extraordinary” students available in any year. Maybe there are a couple thousand of them. But the number of really-great-but-not-extraordinary students in the next category down is way greater than 6-8,000. None of those students has any kind of moral claim to a slot on the basis of merit. Colleges are going to choose some and not others, based on whatever criteria they have, including ECs, or community service, or whatever.</p>