What do you think my chances of admission are?

In case OP gets rejected or deferred, I suggest OP look at other school’s that does not consider freshmen grades. I am sure there are other elite universities that does not look at freshmen grade besides Stanford. However, this does exclude the entire Ivy League as all eight members look for the entire high school record. I am not sure about UChic, MIT, or Caltech, JHU, CMU, Duke and what their policies are, OP should look into those unis.

The UCs are good choices for the OP to consider.