What is my chance of admission to UCD with this scenario

If you fail to meet the TAG requirements then you cannot be admitted via TAG. However in their FAQ Davis says:

Q) What happens if I am unable to meet the requirements of my TAG?
A) You may still be a competitive applicant through the regular if you are unable to meet the provisions of your TAG. Additionally, you may be able to apply for a TAG again the following year. Speak with your California community college counselor regarding your circumstances.