What? No Comment About Thompson Joining the Race?

Parent Cafe
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<p>I’m a republican and I dont like him…wouldn’t call him a nutjob though. If I had to give that title to anyone it would go to edwards…hell I even respect clinton more then him and that’s saying something.</p>

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<p>I think there are similarities between Grandpa Fred and George W. Bush. Both have a simplistic slogan-heavy world view that drives their policy positions without regard to data or analysis. Both are arrogant in their belief that their world view is unfailing. The combination of arrogance and unwillingness to question assumptions is a very dangerous combination, as we have seen from Bush’s disasterous foreign policy.</p>

<p>I think the more apt comparison is probably Edwards and Romney. Both seem disturbingly willing to completely recast themselves for convenience. Edwards from southern DLC centrist in his Senate race to Naderesque anti-corporate crusader in this race. Romney’s flip-flops are sociopathic. He literally has no shame. I’ve never seen anything like it. Most politicians flip-flop on some issues (and we should occasionally be happy they do), but Romney has reversed his core positions on every single issue in the book, without batting an eye.</p>

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<p>Interesteddad, I agree with your comparison of Thompson and Bush. People like that scare me because there’s no room for an evolution in their thinking. They view the world One Way, and One Way Only, and there’s no room for discussion or additional facts.</p>

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<p>I’m emphatically not for Thompson…but I do like facts. Thompson did not leave any wife for his present wife…he was divorced (and playing the field) for many years before he met Jeri at some political thing. True, she’s only in her 40’s (20 yrs younger than Federal Fred) but she didn’t break up his marriage. </p>

<p>Now that that is cleared up…Thompson is no Washington outsider, no country boy, no matter what his ads try to make you believe. He came to the Hill at 30, has been in government as a public servant and out as a powerful lobbyist. He was the head of one of the most influential groups in the city (the Federal City Council) if not <em>the</em> most influential, and had a large share in creating one of the most monstrous federal entities…the DHS. He’s Washington Elite all the way. If he’d run as someone who can get the job done because he knows all the right switches to flip, that’s one thing. But he’s running as the ‘outsider’ who’d come in and shake things up. How long will the base fall for it? Who can say? They elected GWB as a downhome Texas boy despite his Back East birth, schooling, and fortune. </p>

<p>Thompson’s problem has always been that he can’t make up his mind whether he’s an actor who used to be in politics or a politician who is sometimes an actor. Now he wants to be President (or Jeri wants to be First Lady, if you listen to the gossip). Giving his health problem which could return at any time, his lack of fire, and his general air of exhaustion, I’m afraid we’d wind up with another Wilson or Reagan – a sick, tired man trying hopelessly to do a job that ruins the health of even the healthiest and strongest. For his own sake, I hope he drops out by December.</p>

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<p>“I think the more apt comparison is probably Edwards and Romney. Both seem disturbingly willing to completely recast themselves for convenience. Edwards from southern DLC centrist in his Senate race to Naderesque anti-corporate crusader in this race.”</p>

<p>Maybe Edwards has changed because he sees the country has moved too far to the right.</p>

<p>I supported Robert Kennedy, then shifted and became a Republican and supported Reagan as I saw the country shift too far to the left and too anti-business, and now am in the center (or maybe left of center as I see the country has now moved too far to the right). I have no problems if candidates change their viewpoints over time. </p>

<p>I wish candidates would change their viewpoints over time as events evolve. It means they think.</p>

<p>I view Edwards’ thinking as evolving and a good thing. The country has favored capital over labor for almost 26 years. Corporations over people for 26 years. Defense spending and subsidies for the rich over spending for the poor for 26 years. </p>

<p>I would hope Edwards or any candidate would notice these trends and come up with policies to counter act these trends as the country has shifted too far to the right over the last 26 years imho.</p>

<p>I am not going to support any candidate that hasn’t flip-flopped on any issues.</p>

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<p>“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”
Bertrand Russell</p>

<p>If you have doubts, you are more likely to actually think, and change your viewpoints.</p>

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<p>Dstark, I agree with you. If my views have changed or evolved, why shouldn’t theirs? </p>

<p>That said, I don’t like people who have changed their views depending on what office they’re running for, or who their audience is. Like Romney.</p>

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<p>From Post 2……</p>

<p>“I don’t think anybody really cares about Grandpa Fred. As long as he’s in the race….”</p>

<p>I think the question of “as long as he’s in the race…” is interesting. I would like to start a “drop out pool for Grandpa Fred” Each of us picks the date they think he will drop out presidential race and the person who gets the closes to the real date wins the right to say “I WON.” </p>

<p>In order to make the contest more fair for those who don’t follow politics as closely as some others Grandpa Fred got in presidential race for two reasons. The first one is, his wife wants to be the next Nancy Reagan, and get to ware all of those fancy free dresses while being able to get even with all of the Washington types who for years have considered her just another bimbo. The second, and more practical reason is that by building his name recognition by running for president Grandpa will be able to command a higher amount of money when the takes over full time for the ageing Paul Harvey.</p>

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<p>I’m picking Jan 11, 2008. It’ll be for ‘health reasons’. It’s a Friday so the only people who’ll care are those who watch the Sunday chat shows.</p>

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<p>For 10 years I worked for a guy that everyone in Washington acknowledged was one of the 5 or 6 best poll “readers” not pollster, but poll reader, in the town. Having run campaigns for years he would take the information a pollster had gathered and tell us what the information told us and explain how the information worked in the real world, he was good, very good. He often said “the problem with amateurs and polls is that amateurs only believe the polls that tell them what they want to hear.”</p>

<p>The advantage of the information on the web site <a href=“http://www.pollster.com%5B/url%5D”>www.pollster.com</a> is that there is so much of it, and the site shows trends. At this point in the presidential race the direction, or trend, of a Candidate’s support will tell you more than the number of the day. If you want to use Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll you will be better off if you look at its trend rather than the daily numbers. However if you do that, you are back where you started, looking at trends. </p>

<p>The amount of information is so much larger at pollster, and since pollster uses a many different polls, individual anomalies are mitigated, and its trend lines give you a much better view of what is really going on.</p>

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<p>tommybill:</p>

<p>I actually think Grandpa Fred has a decent chance of winning the Republican nomination. I expect him to quickly establish himself as the candidate to beat in the hard-core Republican Southern base where a Massachusetts Mormon and a New York Crossdresser remain tough sells. The key for Grandpa Fred is whether he can get to the southern primaries. Specifically, he will need to demonstrate competitiveness in Iowa because I don’t see New Hampshire becoming solid Fred territory.</p>

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<p>On polling, I keep a graph of the daily Rasmussen tracking polls. They are interesting, but highly variable. Invariably, whenever a candidate appears to be on a roll in the Rasmussen polls, the trends flip back towards the mean. For example, Clinton had a significant run-up last week – from 38% to 45% (her high-water mark) from Friday to Friday. However, I expect to correct back towards her mean around 40%.</p>

<p>Rasmussen is a bit too responsive to short-term news cycles – for example the “shock n’ awe” presence of Bill and Hillary Clinton last week, starting with their joint campaign rallies and appearances on Letterman, Ellen, Oprah, Good Morning America, and Larry King Live.</p>

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<p>ID…</p>

<p>Below is David Yepsen’s comments from the Des Moines Register…I have been in Iowa for the caucas in one way or the other in every year since ’76 with the exception of ’04 and in ’04 I was there for the fall campaign…. Yepsen is the best state wide political reporter in the state…I agree Thompson could move in the race as open as it is….I just think he will not be able to work hard enough to pull Iowa or NH off….no matter what, its going to be interesting to watch…best link to keep up with the Iowa caucus is below…</p>

<p><a href=“http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=caucus[/url]”>http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=caucus&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>In the Grandpa Fred Drop Out Pool should we put you down as all of the way to the convention……a bold position I might add </p>

<p>:: Thu 9.6.2007 4:45 PM</p>

<p>Fred Thompson’s announcement speech Thursday in Des Moines was underwhelming.</p>

<p>The former U.S. Senator and movie actor formally announced his long-awaited candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination at the Des Moines Convention Complex. It wasn’t very impressive.</p>

<p>The crowd of a few hundred didn’t seem enthused. Thompson’s oratory didn’t soar but was somewhat rambling.</p>

<p>He would have been better off just to repeat the announcement statement he posted on his web site. It is much better written and cogently delivered.</p>

<p>Okay, so let’s cut him some slack. (Just to borrow a phrase.)</p>

<p>This is merely the beginning of his campaign. It was the middle of a week day afternoon.</p>

<p>The intro video was pretty good. And the talented staff he has recruited late in the nomination fight hasn’t had time to get everything in place. (Bill Lacy from the Bob Dole years is running the national operation. In Iowa, the effort is being run by Bob Haus and Andrew Dorr, two respected operatives.)</p>

<p>But, still, as the Thompson campaign winds it’s way across Iowa for the next two days, the actor might want to work on his lines. Punch up the message. Lose the note cards. Pump up the volume. Give us a little stump oratory. And how about a specific policy initiative or two?</p>

<p>Otherwise, Republican activists won’t be impressed. They’ll be disappointed. Thompson won’t live up to their expectation that he could be their savior. They’ll start drifting to other candidates.</p>

<p>And this thing will get out of hand. (Just to borrow</p>

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<p>Jebus. As a resident of Tennessee, I hope to God he isn’t elected. And I don’t mean that just because I’m not a republican.</p>

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<p>tommybill:</p>

<p>I’m well aware of Grandpa Fred’s weakness. I made it point to catch the video of two of his Iowa campaign appearances over the weekend – his opening day speech and a Q&A appearance in Davenport. He’s definitely a weak candidate.</p>

<p>Having said that, the Republican race is like the 2004 Democratic primaries. The voters are dispirited and inclined to dislike all of their candidates. It makes the Republican side very fluid.</p>

<p>As Bill Clinton said on Larry King the other night in assessing the Republican field, “Thompson doesn’t have the record of accomplishment in office that some of the others have, but he maybe carries less baggage, so he could make it interesting.”</p>

<p>The dynamics are crazy. Romney has poured millions of dollars in TV adverstising into Iowa and NH, riding it to significant leads in two early states. But, his poll numbers in the south suggest that the double whammy of being a Mormon and from Massachusetts makes him about as popular as a yankee tourist in black socks and sandals on he beach. He’s the plague in the south.</p>

<p>The Crossdresser has a big state edge in the Republican race, but can he survive losses in Iowa, NH, and SC and still be viable enough to get to the big states?</p>

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<p>Just like the Democratic candidate in 1992?</p>

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<p>Rudy’s a cross dresser? Where did that come from? Any proof, ID?</p>

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<p><a href=“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8[/url]”>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p><a href=“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb2y1IM17sM[/url]”>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb2y1IM17sM&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Not sure if I can link to a youtube video but if you google ‘Giuliani cross dress’ you’ll find a lovely video of the femininely attired mayor getting manhandled by The Donald.</p>

<p>Edit: Beat me to it, Interesteddad!</p>

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<p>The crossdressing isn’t the worst of Rudi’s problems in the bible belt. After his wife threw him out of the house for his affairs with his press secretary and later with Judi Nathan, he moved into an apartment with a gay couple.</p>

<p>By the time Grandpa Fred’s swiftboaters get done with the smear tactics in South Carolina, Rudy will probably wish that they were just spreading the rumor that he had fathered an illegitimate black child like Rove did to McCain in 2000.</p>