I think about 1/3 to half tend to make it past first cut, for various reasons. Obviously, most that don’t make it past that are flat out not qualified. But as colleges get overwhelmed by apps and still need to manage costs, the very first cull can be severe. Then they go through more review layers for the “semi finalists.”
By saying the finalists are about 3x, I mean that if there are roughly 2000 to be admitted, the final considerations could be around 6k. Not bad for a college with sub 10% admitted.
But the final chance depends a lot on that sub pool. If xxx kids from the Bay Area apply and the vast majority are stem, those kids’ chances are lower than, say, that fabulous humanities kid. Or the proverbial male classics or English major. Or the one tuba player they need. And more.
Be happy he apparently got this far.