The problem is not that a 20 lower middle class kids at a mediocre high school from a graduating class of 500 kids are applying even though they don’t have a chance. The problem is that, at affluent high schools, 300 of a graduating class of 600 are applying.
Yale representatives are not stopping by the majority of high schools in low income communities and convincing them all to apply, but they are stopping by every affluent public and private high school.
@Data10 shared some statistics about acceptance rates for poor kids to the Ivies, and was was striking was that acceptance rates for low income kids was slightly higher than for affluent kids.
That means that, of the 57,000 applicants to Harvard, some 40,000 are from the top 20% by income, while only some 2,800 are from the bottom 20%. That is hardly a massive influx of mediocre applications from mediocre high schools. Instead it indicates a massive influx of mediocre applications from affluent high schools.
Another reason that this year had a large increase in applications was that last year had a drop in applications, and a consequent increase in acceptance rates. That would encourage applicants to apply to colleges with lower acceptance rates this year.