While I can’t account for the accuracy yet, I like that CollegeVine takes into account if you are applying test-optional (although how big of a data set can there possibly be for schools that did not have that option prior to Covid?) They also chance by major. DS chances went up when he switched the major he was considering from engineering to bio. I think their safeties and matches seem right on.
I think they chance him high in his reaches. ( He’s taken the highest rigor available, actually beyond the highest with having courses created specifically for him, but his school does not offer AP. He will also likely be #1 in his class, but it’s a class of 70. His school is specifically for kids with LDs and although many go to great colleges, I’d say the majority are not highly selective). None of his reaches are ivies or the most highly selective schools. He is basically targeting OOS flagships (some highly selective and some that are not selective at all) and a few smaller LAC or tech schools with acceptance rates in the 35%-65% range)
It seems to fall pretty much in line with what I am expecting (I’m an eternal realist) and what I’ve seen in relation to the college acceptances from his 2022 classmates. I think if you are honest with yourself and factor in weaknesses your application may have (while also not overestimating your strengths which are probably pretty similar to the majority of applicants), it can give you a pretty good estimate.