100% not calling you either naïve or stupid!
But: your question is not actually simple (if it was, you wouldn’t have needed to ask!)
If the core questions is: are my odds of success with a transfer application better when applying after 1 term (ie, this year), or 3 (ie, next year) then the first practical question is: have you applied to Georgetown previously? If you applied as a senior and got rejected, you would be re-applying with effectively the same application, and hoping for a different result.
If this would be your first application, then the next question is: do you have a compelling reason for the transfer? You don’t have to give one to us, but the folks at GU are going to want one.
You have added a complicating factor: you want to study sociology at GU, but are not studying that at UMd, even though it has a perfectly good soc department. So, that raises a question (why?), in addition to the one you ask (is it better to transfer sooner?).
And, because 1) soc pathways typically require grad school; 2) you have raised the question of time to finishing your UG degree, 3) transfers typically don’t get the same level of financial support and 4) the difference between the cost of GU and UMd is meaningful, the question of financing the transfer is relevant in making the decision of when / where to transfer. More specifically, depending on your budget, 2 years at in-state UMd + 2 years at GU might make more sense than 1 + 3, thus potentially being a variable in when you should transfer.