Since everyone keeps on saying that ED is a big advantage (but I think I showed it didn’t at Brown), I decided to run the numbers for U Penn. U Penn has the same issue as Brown with reporting Asians as Students of Color, so it’s impossible for me to get a read on how Asians, Hispanics, and Blacks are impacted by admissions policies between ED and RD. But I think I was able to get a read on ED vs RD for an unhooked non-POC applicant, and I think at U Penn it is the difference between a 3.77% chance at ED and a 1.14% chance at RD. So while both of those numbers are abysmal, I have to agree that is a substantial difference. Here’s how I arrived at those numbers, and I made a whole host of assumptions that obviously impact the numbers significantly and you can all let me know if you think the assumptions are wrong. By the way, I didn’t use the Common Data Set because it doesn’t break down information on who the ED accepted applicants are, and I couldn’t find that information for last year’s class.
From different articles in U Penn’s school newspaper for the Class of 2022:
For ED: 1,312 out of 7,074 kids were admitted. 25% of admitted students are legacies, 11% first generation, 43% Person of Color and 12% international.
For the whole class: 3,731 kids out of 44,482 were accepted. 1 out of every 7 students is a first gen. 16% are legacies. 53% are Persons of Color. And 13% international.
So I calculated that for RD: 2,419 out of 37,408 were admitted. If 1 out of 7 students is 1st gen, that’s 14% or 522 students, less 145 at ED round, equals 377 first gens at RD round. If 16% of whole class is a legacy, that’s 597 students, less 328 at the ED round, equals 328 legacies at RD round. If 13% of the whole class is international, that’s 485 students, less 157 at ED round, equals 328 at RD. If 53% of the class is POC, that’s 1,977 students, less 525 at ED round, so 1,452 at RD round.
I had also seen somewhere that Penn has approximately 200 recruited athletes
In looking at the various groups, it’s obvious that some kids qualify for more than one grouping, so I added a certain number of the slots back in to address the issue of double dipping. I figured 30% of legacies are also in another group (either POC, international, or athletes), 50% of the athletes (either POC or 1st generation), 50% of 1st generation (either POC or athletes), and 50% of international (either POC or legacy).
So…
ED:
1,312 accepted students
(328) legacy
(200) athletics
(145) 1st gen
(564) POC
(157) international
- 349 add-back
Total of 267 unhooked non-POC spots. Total ED applications 7,074. So 3.77%
RD:
2,419 accepted students and a total of 37,408 applicants
(269) legacy
(328) international
(377) 1st gen
(1,452) POC
- 433 add-back
Total of 426 unhooked non-POC spots. Total ED applications 37,408. So 1.14%
Anyway, I hope these numbers are helpful to someone, and I’m sorry if I’m taking this thread off-track. It just kept bugging me that everyone thinks that ED confers such a huge advantage. I guess it does at U Penn, to the tune of a little more than 3x as much, although the numbers are still really tough. At fist blush it looks like kids have an 18% chance of getting in ED, but that’s simply not the case because some kids have a much higher chance (legacies at 25%) and others have a lower chance (unhooked non-POC 3.77).